• by Tanya Gazdik , August 3, 2016

Ford, General Motors and Toyota experienced U.S. sales declines in July while Chrysler and Nissan managed small increases.

Ford’s sales fell 3%, including an unexpected 1% decline in pickup truck sales, while GM’s sales fell 4% and Toyota’s dipped 1.4%.

Nissan’s sales rose 1.2%. Fiat Chrysler Automobile’s tiny 0.3 increase, even after a change in the automaker’s sales reporting system, confirms the relentless strength of its Jeep and Ram brands, says Karl Brauer, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.

“Nearly every model from those divisions was up last month, though declines in almost every other model from the Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat brands resulted in essentially flat sales.”

Meanwhile, Ford's sales were a mixed bag. Ford trucks continue to show up in spades, with Transit continuing to display gangbusters growth.  F-Series sales were flat, but this could be a blip on the radar.  

“More troubling for Ford is the retail sales dip of 6%, as both SUVs and cars were down this month,” says Akshay Anand, analyst for Kelley Blue Book. “The sedan trend likely will continue, but if Ford wants further sales growth, it must bring SUVs back into the black.”

After a first half coming in weaker than expected, the start of the second half is being closely watched, says Stephanie Brinley, senior analyst, IHS Markit.

“The industry is shifting to an environment with smaller growth potential,” she says. “We expect competition for consumers to increase and for automakers to continue to shift focus to segments that offer potential for more profitable sales.”

IHS Automotive has lowered its full-year forecast to 17.51 million units—nearly flat with the 17.47 million units sold in 2015. Automakers with less competitive products, weak marketing or lower consumer consideration may also struggle in the second half of the year, and pressure for volume may lead to higher incentives.

Several automakers struggled to increase volume last month, despite two extra sales days in July and rising incentives on many models, KBB’s Brauer says.

“The industry’s six-year sales streak is clearly plateauing, though plateauing at a rate above 17 million annual sales isn’t the worst place to be,” he says. “Trucks and SUVs have driven the lion’s share of growth in recent years, yet many of the market’s most popular models were flat last month, suggesting even the utility gravy train is slowing down.” 

General Motors remained positive about the remainder of the year, despite July’s dip.

“Low interest rates, full employment, stable fuel prices and increasing wages remain in place and these positive factors continue to point toward a strong second half of the year and another potential record year for the industry,” Mustafa Mohatarem, GM’s chief economist, said in a statement.