Entering Q2, 2009 says the report, there is limited long-term visibility in the market as most advertisers wait until the last moment to confirm their spending commitments. Many are treating advertising as a discretionary expense, and one they find convenient to cut. Unprecedented economic problems and events affecting the predicted 6.9% decline in global ad expenditure in 2009 include:
Advertising Expenditure By Region (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet; US$ million, current prices) | ||||||||||
| 2007 | Y/Y Chg % | 2008 | Y/Y Chg % | 2009 | Y/Y Chg % | 2010 | Y/Y Chg % | 2011 | Y/Y Chg % |
North America | $188,300 | 2.7% | 181,269 | -3.7 | 166,299 | -8.3 | 163,811 | -1.5 | 165,768 | 1.2 |
USA only |
| 2.5 |
| -4.1 |
| -8.7 |
| -1.7 |
| 1.1 |
Western Europe | 120,177 | 6.0 | 118,894 | -1.1 | 110,875 | -6.7 | 112,090 | 1.1 | 115,835 | 3.3 |
Asia Pacific | 99,583 | 6.8 | 102,584 | 3.0 | 99,071 | -3.4 | 101,704 | 2.7 | 108,480 | 6.7 |
Central & Eastern Europe | 31,634 | 22.4 | 35,071 | 10.9 | 30,190 | -13.9 | 31,559 | 4.5 | 34,547 | 9.5 |
Latin America | 26,422 | 16.3 | 29,676 | 12.3 | 29,070 | -2.0 | 31,128 | 7.1 | 32,969 | 5.9 |
Africa/M. East/ROW | 15,931 | 22.6 | 19,241 | 20.8 | 17,750 | -7.7 | 19,664 | 10.8 | 23,069 | 17.3 |
World | 482,047 | 6.7 | 486,734 | 1.0 | 453,254 | -6.9 | 459,956 | 1.5 | 480,668 | 4.5 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, April 2009 |
Ad expenditure correlates strongly with corporate profits, acknowledges the stuey, and the ad market is unlikely to start its recovery until profits start to pick up again. The current barriers to recovery include lack of trust in the credit markets, and low confidence in prospects for short-term growth. In addition:
Globally, some of the ZenithOptimedia ad expenditure projections include:
In considering global advertising expenditure by medium, the report concludes that, as consumers are saving money by spending more time at home, media consumption is increasing, particularly of television and the internet.
US Advertising Expenditure By Medium (US$ million, current prices) | |||||
| 2007 ($x000) | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 |
Newspapers | $128,553 | 121,636 | 107,005 | 102,651 | 102,866 |
Magazines | 57,789 | 55,136 | 49,046 | 47,549 | 48,155 |
Television | 178,169 | 183,277 | 173,158 | 179,146 | 186,573 |
Radio | 38,198 | 37,361 | 33,621 | 33,204 | 34,041 |
Cinema | 2,287 | 2,421 | 2,336 | 2,472 | 2,675 |
Outdoor | 30,546 | 31,395 | 29,276 | 29,914 | 31,792 |
Internet | 41,352 | 49,994 | 54,298 | 60,438 | 69,695 |
Total | 476,894 | 481,219 | 448,740 | 455,373 | 475,797 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia, April 2009 |
The internet is the only medium expected to actually attract higher ad expenditure in 2009, thanks to its accountability and innovation in ad formats, says the report.
Most of this growth will come from search advertising, concludes the study, as consumers considering a purchase are using search more as they seek out the very best deals. In the US, the report predicts search advertising to grow 9.0% in 2009, while classified grows just 1.8% and traditional display shrinks 1.8%. Internet video and rich media is forecast to grow 29.8%, internet radio 29.7% and podcasts11.9%, but these represent only 12% of US internet expenditure between them.
The study expects television ad expenditure to fall 5.5% in 2009, but this represents an increase in market share from 38.1% to 38.6%, followed by a record 39.3% share in 2010. Advertisers that cut budgets across the board will often cut television last, since they know it best and are convinced of its effectiveness, concludes the report.
Please visit ZenithOptimedia here for more details about the forecast.
is there a typo in the last chart titled "US Advertising Expenditure By Medium (US$ million, current prices)?" shouldn't this say "Global Advertising Expenditure...?"
agree with Meno, chart wouldn't make much sense for only US