• by Steve McClellan  @mp_mcclellan, July 13, 2011

Given recent signs that the economy will take longer to fully recover from the 2009 recession, ZenithOptimedia has downgraded its 2011 ad spending forecast for the U.S. by nearly half a percentage point to $154.49 billion.

In April, the media shop predicted a year-to-year 2.5% spending increase, but now it's calling for a mere 2.1% gain.

ZO is also predicting slightly less spending growth worldwide: 4.1% versus the previously forecast 4.2%, for a global total of $471 billion. The good news, if that forecast holds, is that worldwide spending will finally reach the pre-recession total achieved in 2008.

In the U.S., however, the ad recovery will take a while longer to complete, the agency said. "It will take several years for [U.S.] advertising spending to reach the level [$170.2 billion] it was at in 2008," ZO stated in its latest forecast, released Wednesday.

Contributing to the slower U.S. recovery, the agency said, is a slumping consumer confidence index, which fell more than five percentage points to 60.8% from April to May. Dampening the mood is an unemployment rate that is still hovering between 9% and 10%. While consumer spending was up slightly in April, that was due largely to inflation in the prices of essentials like food and gasoline, ZO reported.

While the economy remains uncertain, recent media trends will continue, ZO said, noting that cable TV will be one of the biggest gainers this year -- up 10% -- as it continues to grab share of dollars from network TV.

The biggest media gainer, by percentage growth, will be the Internet, forecast to be up 12.6% this year. Print will continue to suffer, with newspapers sliding another 8.5% in 2011 while consumer magazines will drop a modest 1%.

Globally, high oil prices and worries about public debt in Europe "have damaged confidence in the stability of the world economy," ZO stated in its revised estimates. The shop slightly downgraded its forecasts for both North America and Western Europe, now expected to rake in spending of $165.3 billion and $106 billion, respectively.

On the plus side, the agency upgraded its forecast for the Asia-Pacific region, where ad spending is now expected to grow nearly 6% this year. That compares to the 4.6% growth ZO predicted for the region just three months ago.