• by Mark Walsh  @markfwal, April 27, 2010

What a difference a year makes. Media buyers and television sales executives Tuesday sounded an upbeat note about the upfront TV advertising marketplace after last year's pullback caused by a moribund economy. 

"Last year sucked," said Joe Abruzzese, president of ad sales for Discovery Communications, not mincing words about the 2009 upfront season at MediaPost's Outfront conference in New York, where he sat on a panel sizing up the 2010 TV ad market.

By contrast, both pricing and total upfront ad spending are expected to be on the upswing this year.

"When we compare our pricing and volume versus a year ago, it's all good," said David Cassaro, president of ad sales at Comcast Networks. "The same is true of every segment, whether auto, tech, retail -- pick your category. People are looking to grow market share or volume, or both."

As a sign of the rebounding TV ad business, panelists pointed to the sharply higher prices in the scatter market, where commercials are bought closer to air time. Those rates have been up more than 20% over rates agreed to in last year's upfront.

"A lot of us were surprised when the fourth quarter was stronger than expected. We thought the scatter market would take a couple of more months to develop," said Donna Speciale, president, investment and activation and agency operations at MediaVest USA. With hot new products like the iPad coming out recently, she mentioned that technology looked to be an especially strong ad category this year.

She and other panelists agreed that the economics of buying and selling air time was almost back to normal. "Last year, there was both uncertainty and no cost to waiting," said Jon Nesvig, president of sales at Fox Broadcasting Company. "We're back to balance this year, where there's a significant premium of scatter versus the upfront."

A recent survey of 200 top TV media-buying decision makers by research firm Advertiser Perceptions found they plan to commit at least half of all their 2010-11 TV ad budgets during the upfront. But hinting at hard bargaining ahead, Speciale suggested digital media could eat into the volume of TV ad-buying this year.

But the TV executives quickly batted down the notion that digital ad spending would displace old media any time soon. "Digital is still only a small piece," said Abruzzese, estimating it at 2% to 3% of Discovery's business. Both he and Nesvig emphasized that TV is still king when it comes to driving revenue.

Asked by moderator Wayne Friedman of MediaDailyNews about the CW network's plan to sell traditional TV and Internet advertising for the upfront, the TV sales bosses were also skeptical.

CW recently doubled the amount of advertising on its Web site, to some 20 30-second commercials per one-hour TV episode -- about the same commercial load as on TV. It wants to add to its traditional TV buys what marketers have been missing.

"The digital model doesn't work unless you're getting better ratings online than on the linear network," said Abruzzese. "That is the Napster generation, who think they're going to get everything for nothing," he added, referring to CW's young-skewing viewers.

Speciale said the network's combined selling approach made more sense because of the tech-savvy, 18-to-34 audience it attracts, which watches so much TV online. "They're still trying to figure out where their audience is," she said.

Nielsen earlier this year announced plans to merge online viewing of TV programs into its so-called C3 ratings, which could help to encourage more packaging of digital and traditional TV inventory.

"Should my eyeballs have a different value if I'm watching TV in my living room or on a computer or PDA? Probably not," said Linda Yaccarino, COO of Turner Entertainment ad sales/marketing and acquisitions. But for cross-media measurement to gain acceptance, "a full commercial load [online] is the only viable model that works."

Yaccarino was more enthusiastic about Turner's recent deals landing Conan O'Brien as host of his own late-night TV show on TBS and its 14-year pact (with CBS) for rights to the NCAA college basketball tournament. She called O'Brien a "brand fit made in heaven" with TBS' 18- to-49-year-old demographic. The signings also reflect cable TV's added muscle in negotiating big-dollar media deals.

Ad execs surveyed by Advertiser Perceptions said they plan to spend more of their upfront TV advertising budgets on cable than on broadcast TV this year. Nearly two-thirds (62%) of clients, and 53% of agency executives said they planned to place a greater share of their upfront advertising budgets on cable vs. broadcast this year.