Ed DeNicola
Member since April 2004Contact Ed- Chief Operating Officer SceneSave
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-denicola/
- Twitter: Ed DeNicola@ed_denicola
- 2 Shire Place
- Tinton Falls New Jersey
- 07753 USA
Ed DeNicola started his career in media at a cable TV network. He spent just short of 20 years at The Nielsen Company working mostly with TV networks and DBS providers including A+E, CNBC, Disney, Starz/Encore, ESPN, HBO, Turner Broadcasting, DIRECTV and Dish. He is a Nielsen-trained media researcher. From there, he learned TV set-top box ad targeting from the company that invented it (TiVo Research, formerly TRA) and had an opportunity to apply those learnings for a political consultancy in primary races and the 2016 US presidential election.
Articles by Ed All articles by Ed
- Despite The Hype, Conversions Are A Poor Ad-Currency Choice in
Planning & Buying Insider on
01/19/2024
The reality is that publishers and TV networks cannot guarantee sales -- all they can do is provide a good advertising environment.
- Want To Know Who Will Win In '24 -- Ask A Prediction Market in
Marketing Politics Weekly on
12/27/2023
It doesn't make a lot of sense to get too upset about the polls or the prediction markets at this stage in the run up to the election, but unlike conventional polling, prediction markets project a Democratic presidential win in November 2024.
- Musk's Cambridge Analytica Moment in
MediaDailyNews on
12/04/2023
If Elon Musk is as smart as many believe he is, he's already decided to change X's business model from an ad-supported one to something else. In that case, there was little risk in him cursing out the ad community last week. Unfortunately, this probably isn't the case.
- Musk, Anti-Semitism And Wearing A Muzzle in
MediaDailyNews on
11/21/2023
If Musk can muzzle it, and X can improve brand safety, CEO Linda Yaccarino will at least have a fighting chance to fix X's ad business.
- The MRC Vs. The JIC in
MediaDailyNews on
10/24/2023
Is the U.S. JIC an end-run around the MRC and does it break the industry's agreement with the U.S. Congress? Let's compare the two organizations.
- What Are Prediction Markets And Why Should You Care? in
MediaDailyNews on
07/24/2023
The wisdom of crowds theory says that if you total people's insights, the combined wisdom of the crowd will render forecasts that are close to actual outcomes.
- Perhaps The Greatest Threat To Democracy in
MediaDailyNews on
06/29/2023
As opaque as dark money is in paid media, what's its influence in the biggest part of the political campaign mix: earned media?
- The Big Bluff in
MediaDailyNews on
05/08/2023
When it comes to the ad market, the networks have always held all the cards. So why are they bluffing on alt currencies?
- A Convenient Truth in
MediaDailyNews on
05/03/2023
The alt currency companies seeking JIC certification use what some researchers might refer to as "convenience samples," because their data is conveniently available.
- Reliability Vs. Validity in
MediaDailyNews on
05/01/2023
Is the purpose of the new joint industry committee about improving audience measurement quality or is it about gamesmanship? Is it even possible to validly measure viewing using alternative data sources such as TV set-top boxes or smart TVs?
Comments by Ed All comments by Ed
- Want To Know Who Will Win In '24 -- Ask A Prediction Market
by
Ed DeNicola
(Marketing Politics Weekly on
12/27/2023)
Hi Joel -- If you read the op-ed again, you'll see that it says "PredictIt prices agree with the polls for its candidate specific market." There are more than one presidential election market on PredictIt. PredictIt agrees with the polls for the Biden vs. Trump 2024 presidential market with Trump favored; however, when you look at the general ballot presidential market (Dems vs Reps) it favors the democrats which is in agreement with IEM. I did write the article last week, but the relationship between the numbers hasn't changed.
- 605 Reasons There Will Be Fewer, Not More Alt Currencies
by
Joe Mandese
(TV Watch on
09/13/2023)
Thanks for the write-up, Joe. The alt currencies wiil need scale to compete with Nielsen and this deal makes sense from that perspective. On the other hand, it does nothing to provide these companies with a panel they can use to fix inherent flaws in their big data. They're in the same boat as they were before as it relates to being able to report currency-grade TV ratings.
- What Are Prediction Markets And Why Should You Care?
by
Ed DeNicola
(MediaDailyNews on
07/24/2023)
Hi Ed -- First off, I want to say that you're very smart and everyone benefits from your commentary.Regarding your feedback here, you have to remember that prediction markets aren't based on probability theory. They're based on the theory of the wisdom of crowds. As a result, sample size and representation aren't necessarily key factors when it comes to harvesting good predictions.One of the really interesting findings from my time at Media Predict was that woman were just as good at predicting the success of male-oriented shows as men were at predicting the success of female-oriented shows. The demographics didn't matter. Moreover, the people who were bad at making predictions would predict poorly in both directions and cancel each other out.If you were going to use a prediction market for research, you don't have to pull a sample. You would use the existing panel and pay to have a question added to the market. It doesn't have to be more expensive to use a crowd methodology.This op-ed isn't to bash polls or surveys. I still look at them. However, when available, I look at prediction market data as well.
- The Fallout From Repetitive Ads Is Worse Than You Think
by
Karlene Lukovitz
(Advanced TV Insider on
07/21/2023)
This is a great write up on an important research study. Part of the problem is that ad sellers are unable to fulfill orders for impressions against target audiences without creating high frequencies in certain shows / content. Moreover, they're not willing to turn the business away. This research does a good job of laying out the damaging effect for brands.
- CIMM Study Finds Passive TV Measurement More Accurate Than Active Methods
by
Joe Mandese
(MediaDailyNews on
06/26/2023)
According to the PEW Research Center, response rates for telephone surveys continue to decline. In 2018, they were only 6 percent. I'm not sure if it's possible to do an accurate phone coincidental anymore. Nielsen used to use them to check its numbers; however, response rates for telephone surveys were higher. They were at 36% in 1997.
- 'The Great Hack's' Great Assumption
by
Ed DeNicola
(Marketing Politics Weekly on
10/21/2019)
Thanks for your comments, James. When writing on this topic, I don't receive too many high fives. You're right about the need to vet digital ads. I thnk it will need to be mandated; for profit companies like Facebook are not going to want to add the expense and resources unless it's a legal requirement. Years ago when I was a marketing rep for The Nielsen Company, much of our time was spent vetting TV network ads that included Nielsen data. They had to be approved. It was very time consuming for the company. It's also not a task that could be easily automated using AI.
- The Media Math Behind Russian Meddling
by
Ed DeNicola
(Marketing Politics Weekly on
10/09/2019)
You may be right about that, Douglas. I've never studied or tracked it. One thing I can say from my time working for a political consultancy is that it was surprising to learn from my digital counterparts how easy it is to execute a digital ad campaign in another country right from offices in here the US.
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