Tomorrow is Election Day and if the
predictions are accurate, we can expect an extremely close outcome.
In fact, The Economist’s Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts a 70% probability there will be a
contested, result.
As someone with a passionate interest in the science, I like to look at predictions before and after elections to see which were right.
For
tomorrow's, I’m doing it publicly and sharing with MediaPost’s readers so we can look at it together.
Some of what I've included may not be a "prediction," per se, but it
may be a valuable signal. It’s interesting to see which of those provide foresight, as well.
In terms of market predictions, I’m applying Media Predict’s rules: if
the prediction is between 45% and 55% it’s a “no call."
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Here we go.
The Polls
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average
has Harris up by 0.9 (Harris 47.9 vs. Trump 47.0). These numbers look to be within FiveThirtyEight's error band, which equates to a tie, or too close to call, ruling.
The
Markets
The Keys
The 13 Keys prediction system has been predicting a Democratic party win
going back to my first prediction column in May.
The Democratic nominee might have changed, but Allan Lichtman’s prediction didn’t. His 13 Keys still predict a Democratic
(Harris) victory.
The Betting
BetOnline:
2024 presidential
election – odds to win: Trump -147, Harris +127
Election winner to lose popular Vote: No -170, Yes +130
President – popular vote winner: Harris -425, Trump +315
For anyone unfamiliar with betting, odds
with a negative symbol represent the favorite. The number after the negative symbol is the amount of money you need to bet to win $100.
The Stock
The NASDAQ share price for Trump Media Technology Group Corp. (DJT ticket symbol)
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Model as of Oct. 31 (Source: MarketWatch) based on the stock market’s year-to-date performance.
The
Misery
The Misery Index has been ticking down and was at 6.5 as of Oct. 28 (Source: Investor’s Chronicle). It was 7.02 when I last wrote about it in September. Indices
below a 7.353 predict that the incumbent White House Party will retain power.
The Models
The Political Economy Model, Charles Tien, Hunter College & The Graduate Center, CUNY;
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa
Prospective Financial Future & Length of Time in the White House Model, Brad Lockerbie, East Carolina University
The Voting
Early voter registration is tracked. They know who voted and the party for which people are registered.
They don’t know actual voting behavior and each
party’s distribution of early voters can skew the predicted outcome. For some states where party registration isn’t available, party affiliation is modeled.
76,438,831 early mail-in and in-person votes cast nationally
National -
41% Democrat vs. 39% Republican
Blue-Belt Battleground States
MI - 46% Democrat vs. 43% Republican
PA - 57% Democrat vs. 33% Republican
WI - 34% Democrat vs. 26% Republican
Sunbelt Battleground
States
AZ - 33% Democrat vs. 42% Republican
GA - 45% Democrat vs. 48% Republican
NC - 32% Democrat vs. 33% Republican
NV - 34% Democrat vs. 38% Republican
Source: NBC News analysis of TargetSmart data.
What do I
think? I’m going with Allan Lichtman’s research indicating that the defining factor will be how well the incumbent party performed during the last term. The 13 Keys, The Misery Index and
the DJIA Model all support the view that the Democrats did well enough to retain power. Moreover, IEM has a great track record and its Winner-Takes-All Market also supports a Democratic victory.
When the election is over, I’ll post again with the pre-post comparison.
Regardless of everyone’s political leanings, happy voting and good luck with the election.
*Too close to call.