Search by name, company, title, location, etc.

Ed DeNicola

Member since April 2004Contact Ed

Ed DeNicola started his career in media at a cable TV network. He spent just short of 20 years at The Nielsen Company working mostly with TV networks and DBS providers including A+E, CNBC, Disney, Starz/Encore, ESPN, HBO, Turner Broadcasting, DIRECTV and Dish. He is a Nielsen-trained media researcher. From there, he learned TV set-top box ad targeting from the company that invented it (TiVo Research, formerly TRA) and had an opportunity to apply those learnings for a political consultancy in primary races and the 2016 US presidential election.

Articles by Ed All articles by Ed

Comments by Ed All comments by Ed

  • Back To The Future: Pre-/Post- Election Predictions by Ed DeNicola (Red, White & Blog on 11/07/2024)

    Hi Mark --The basic data was looked up.Below are the early registration data for national and battleground states the morning of the day before Election Day.76,438,831 early mail-in and in-person votes cast nationallyNational - 41% Democrat vs. 39% RepublicanBlue Wall Battleground StatesMI - 46% Democrat vs. 43% RepublicanPA - 57% Democrat vs. 33% RepublicanWI - 34% Democrat vs. 26% RepublicanSunbelt Battleground StatesAZ - 33% Democrat vs. 42% RepublicanGA - 45% Democrat vs. 48% RepublicanNC - 32% Democrat vs. 33% RepublicanNV - 34% Democrat vs. 38% RepublicanSource: NBC News analysis of TargetSmart data.Early registration data had her a little ahead nationally and in the Blue Wall states. If she held all the non-swing Democratic states and won the Blue Wall states it would have put her at 270 to win.Ed

  • Presidential Election Predictions Data: Where We Stand by Ed DeNicola (MediaDailyNews on 11/04/2024)

    Hi Tony -- Thank you for the feedback and for the polling guidelines. They make a lot of sense. FiveThirtyEight's polling average is more complicated than it looks (see https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work/).They're weighting the polls in the average based on sample size and for multiple polls from the same pollster in a short window. The error band is supposed to be for the 95% confidence level (two standard error). Have a great Election Day tomorrow!

  • So Here's My Endorsement by Joe Mandese (Red, White & Blog on 10/28/2024)

    Hi Dan Ciccone --Joe Rogan and Bill Maher are comedians. Ben Shapiro is a pundit. None of these people create news.Joe Mandese's piece is opinion, and we're all entitled to one. I think you're confusing news with opinion and entertainment. News is supposed to be unbiased; whereas, opinion is inherently biased.When I worked for conservatives at Cambridge Analytica and was caught up in the Facebook scandal, the news media wouldn't allow us to tell our side of the story. It didn't matter what we said, they wanted to write about a scandal. MediaPost has been the only publication to give me a voice and let me express some of what I experienced there.I can understand you frustsration, but at the same time I think it is misplaced.Best regards, Ed

  • The New Agile Political Media Campaign Cycle by Joe Mandese (Red, White & Blog on 07/26/2024)

    Hi Joe – Thanks for the shout out. Your prediction that there will be more prediction-key breakers to come is likely accurate. After this tumultuous election run up, Allan Lichtman might have to go back to the drawing board and reassess the 13 keys, maybe add another key for debates and one for assassination attempts. Although, it’s important to note that his 13 keys’ 2024 presidential election prediction has yet to be proven wrong. The jury is still out. Regarding the prediction markets, they’re not all equal. IEM has consistently predicted a democratic victory while PredictIt moves up and down more like the polls. What I find most fascinating recently is how current events are rewriting the future as measured by prediction science. It’s like watching the future unfold before it happens.

  • Prediction Science Does Not Support Biden Dropping Out by Ed DeNicola (Marketing Politics Weekly on 07/05/2024)

    You make a very good point, Tony. Most lay people -- journalists, pundits, consultants and politicians -- treat polling numbers as if they're not subject to error. It's why I like to look at different data from a variety of research methodologies. I like your idea to use double the stated standard error.

  • In Memoriam: Patrick Gottsch, The 'Ted Turner' Of Rural Television by Ed DeNicola (Television News Daily on 05/21/2024)

    I remember that, Maureen. Nielsen moved me into business development. RFD-TV was a good account! You also took over Dish and DIRECTV from me. They were a little hard to give up. I liked the DBS business too.

  • Want To Know Who Will Win In '24 -- Ask A Prediction Market by Ed DeNicola (Marketing Politics Weekly on 12/27/2023)

    Hi Joel -- If you read the op-ed again, you'll see that it says "PredictIt prices agree with the polls for its candidate specific market." There are more than one presidential election market on PredictIt. PredictIt agrees with the polls for the Biden vs. Trump 2024 presidential market with Trump favored; however, when you look at the general ballot presidential market (Dems vs Reps) it favors the democrats which is in agreement with IEM. I did write the article last week, but the relationship between the numbers hasn't changed.

  • 605 Reasons There Will Be Fewer, Not More Alt Currencies by Joe Mandese (TV Watch on 09/13/2023)

    Thanks for the write-up, Joe. The alt currencies wiil need scale to compete with Nielsen and this deal makes sense from that perspective. On the other hand, it does nothing to provide these companies with a panel they can use to fix inherent flaws in their big data. They're in the same boat as they were before as it relates to being able to report currency-grade TV ratings. 

  • What Are Prediction Markets And Why Should You Care? by Ed DeNicola (MediaDailyNews on 07/24/2023)

    Hi Ed -- First off, I want to say that you're very smart and everyone benefits from your commentary.Regarding your feedback here, you have to remember that prediction markets aren't based on probability theory. They're based on the theory of the wisdom of crowds. As a result, sample size and representation aren't necessarily key factors when it comes to harvesting good predictions.One of the really interesting findings from my time at Media Predict was that woman were just as good at predicting the success of male-oriented shows as men were at predicting the success of female-oriented shows. The demographics didn't matter. Moreover, the people who were bad at making predictions would predict poorly in both directions and cancel each other out.If you were going to use a prediction market for research, you don't have to pull a sample. You would use the existing panel and pay to have a question added to the market. It doesn't have to be more expensive to use a crowd methodology.This op-ed isn't to bash polls or surveys. I still look at them. However, when available, I look at prediction market data as well.

  • The Fallout From Repetitive Ads Is Worse Than You Think by Karlene Lukovitz (Advanced TV Insider on 07/21/2023)

    This is a great write up on an important research study. Part of the problem is that ad sellers are unable to fulfill orders for impressions against target audiences without creating high frequencies in certain shows / content. Moreover, they're not willing to turn the business away. This research does a good job of laying out the damaging effect for brands.

About Edit

You haven't told us anything about yourself! Surely you've got something to say. Tell us a little something.