From a prediction science standpoint,
Democrats were in great shape leading up to the first presidential debate. Then presumptive nominee Joe Biden was in a statistical tie in the polls with rival Donald Trump, but was favored by the
13 prediction science keys, as well as in the prediction markets. The presidency was the Democratic Party's to lose.
Since then, Biden underperformed in the first debate, as well as
in subsequent high-profile interviews and Trump survived an assassination attempt, and gained perceived momentum coming out of the Republican National Convention.
What does Biden's
announcement on Sunday do to prediction scenarios?
In Trump’s case, his perceived heroic handling of the shooting offset his prior felony convictions. If you heard him speak about it in
his RNC nomination acceptance, it makes for quite a story.
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Biden is getting older. There is something wrong with his speech. It’s coming out a little mumbled and he struggles
to remember lists of facts in support of his claims.
Trump is aging too, and he appeared very old when he got up after being shot. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if
he started to decline in the same way as Biden.
What no one seems to acknowledge is that for 81 years old, Biden is amazing. At 78, Trump is too. While these men are going to
continue to deteriorate, there are also benefits to their age.
Anyone above the age of 50 or 60 would probably agree with the statement -- if only I knew then what I know now. Twenty
years of additional experience can make a big difference in what we know and how we make decisions.
As it relates to debating, weakening speech and memory are real problems, but are
they detrimental to being able to effectively govern?
The fact is that debates mainly are a show put on to help candidates get elected and they’re not highly correlated with
election outcomes.
Democratic party operatives appear to have little understanding of prediction science and give too much legitimacy to polls.
The polls are up one day and
down the next. As proven by academic research, they have limited long-range predictive relevance. It’s still more than 100 days until Election Day.
Now that Biden has stepped
down and it appears that the Democratic nomination will be contested, a key variable highly correlated with presidential election outcomes will go against Biden and the democrats. Allan
Lichtman’s 13 Keys calls it “Key 2: Nomination Contest."
According to Lichtman, the "Contest" key is the single best predictor of the outcome of any presidential
election. By itself, it has accurately predicted 30 of 34 presidential elections giving it a prediction rate of 88%.
The Biden news also turns the "Incumbency" key against the
democrats. Sitting presidents have only lost the popular vote six out of 20 times across the 34 presidential elections that Lichtman has analyzed.
Media ecologist Jack Meyers
recently wrote about this in a newsletter. He lists five notable open conventions where no candidate had secured a majority of the delegates heading into the event. In every case, the nominated
candidate lost the election.
What I don’t think Democrats realize is how their behavior becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. As more Democrats publicly called for Biden to step
down, Biden’s chances of winning as measured by prediction science declined in turn.
If Kamala Harris’ nomination is contested, her chances of being elected will be slim
to none. The choice of a popular running mate, e.g., Mark Cuban, may or may not be enough to counter history.
It reminds me of the old TV show "Once Upon a Time" where the author of
The Storybrooke Book has the power to alter the destinies of the characters in the show.
In a similar way, the democrats are writing their own demise into the story of the 2024 U.S.
presidential election.