- A Popular Myth About Your Data Is That It's Very Valuable, It's Not in
Media 3.0 on
10/23/2025
If people using platforms that harvest their data were apple trees and the platforms were farms, would the apples belong to the trees or the farm that harvested them?
- The New Trump Bet (Hint: It's Not TACO) in
Red, White & Blog on
09/04/2025
The odds of Trump NOT completing a full term as president are narrowing, at least on online betting platforms, if not the real world of political health.
- Odds Point To Evolving Political Landscape in
Marketing Politics Weekly on
06/17/2025
The 2024 presidential elections seem like a lifetime ago, but it has only been about six months. If a new presidential election were held today, the candidates might very well be different based on
recent odds data from BetOnline.
- Back To The Future: Pre-/Post- Election Predictions in
Red, White & Blog on
11/07/2024
This is how it goes with prediction science. There are no crystal balls. For this election, the methods with the best track record mostly missed and some of the newer betting-related sources did
better. Here's how each performed.
- Presidential Election Predictions Data: Where We Stand in
MediaDailyNews on
11/04/2024
Ahead of tomorrow's election, I'm summing up the major predictions data -- polling, markets, odds, models, etc. -- so we can track the pre- and post- of the outcome to see which proved most accurate.
Happy voting.
- US Election Market Trading Now Legal, Favoring Trump in
Marketing Politics Weekly on
10/25/2024
Here we are just days from the presidential election and prediction market data are predicting very different election outcomes than other prediction methods, so much so that it's difficult to know
which to believe.
- Who Won The VP Debate? Prediction: It Won't Really Matter in
Red, White & Blog on
10/07/2024
Ask a Democrat and the answer is Walz. Ask a Republican and it was Vance. Ask a prediction scientist and the answer is 'who cares."
- The DirecTV/Dish Merger Isn't Brain Surgery, But It Does Require Rocket Science in
MediaDailyNews on
10/01/2024
I was a young exec at Nielsen back in 2002 when DBS was challenging the cable TV business. Much like streaming today, people were forecasting the death of cable. It seems that with any change, someone
or something must always die.
- Predictions, Pet-Eating Polls, And The Misery Index in
Marketing Politics Weekly on
09/13/2024
All meaningful signals -- polls, markets, the 13 keys, TV ratings, betting odds, and even misery indices -- point to Kamala Harris being the favorite to win the election.
- What A Difference A Month Makes in
Marketing Politics Weekly on
08/28/2024
A strong predictor of a Democratic win is the increase in the Iowa Electronic Markets' Democratic share price for its Presidential Election Winner-Take-All Market. It has moved up from 0.700 last
month to 0.830 this month. The Republican price dropped from 0.355 to 0.193.
- A Popular Myth About Your Data Is That It's Very Valuable, It's Not
by
Ed DeNicola
(Media 3.0 on
10/23/2025)
Hi Olivier -- Thanks for letting me know that this Frank McCourt is not the same as the one who wrote "Angela's Ashes". I always try to get my facts right, but missed on this one. The op-ed has been revised. Best regards, Ed
- A Popular Myth About Your Data Is That It's Very Valuable, It's Not
by
Ed DeNicola
(Media 3.0 on
10/23/2025)
Hi Jon -- Thanks for your feedback. To say I'm totally wrong is a bit harsh. You make some great points; although, I think that by now most everyone knows that their data is being used for advertising purposes. The Facebook scandal with Cambridge Analytica was about as public as it gets. Moreover, you didn't speak to the issue of user-data value which is what this post is mostly about. Best regards, Ed
- The New Trump Bet (Hint: It's Not TACO)
by
Ed DeNicola
(Red, White & Blog on
09/04/2025)
Hi Dan -- Thanks for your feedback even if you didn't like my op-ed. Lately, I've been writing on predictive analytics and that's what I did here. It wasn't really about politics. I'm not rooting for Trump to die. I was trying to evaluate whether there was anything to the negative press related to his health. In fact, my analysis was of the opinion that the press coverage was disproportionate to the risk of him actually passing. I do think the question of whether a 79-year-old man will live long enough to finish out a term as president is important and newsworthy. As someone who has experienced what I perceived to be unfair press when I worked for Cambridge Analytica on Trump's campaign, I can certainly sympathize with why you feel the way you do as it relates to conservative press coverage. At the same time, I think that you misinterpreted what I wrote. Ed
- Big Data + Explainer Video
by
Joe Mandese
(Planning & Buying Insider on
09/02/2025)
Hi Joe -- Great article! I was thinking, if you do the math, it took Nielsen ~17 years to get to this point with the blending of TV set-top box and panel data. They've been chasing this dream of integrated big data since 2008. At first, it was because they thought it would be necessary to be able to measure addressable television. Back then, I was thinking it would take about 10 years. Many people probably don't realize or can't appreciate what an achievement this is for Nielsen. A lot of the people who worked on it early on -- Jed Meyer, Manish Bhatia, Jeff Boehme, John Coughlin and Victor Silva -- aren't even with the company anymore. It's a little bitter sweet.
- Back To The Future: Pre-/Post- Election Predictions
by
Ed DeNicola
(Red, White & Blog on
11/07/2024)
Hi Mark --The basic data was looked up.Below are the early registration data for national and battleground states the morning of the day before Election Day.76,438,831 early mail-in and in-person votes cast nationallyNational - 41% Democrat vs. 39% RepublicanBlue Wall Battleground StatesMI - 46% Democrat vs. 43% RepublicanPA - 57% Democrat vs. 33% RepublicanWI - 34% Democrat vs. 26% RepublicanSunbelt Battleground StatesAZ - 33% Democrat vs. 42% RepublicanGA - 45% Democrat vs. 48% RepublicanNC - 32% Democrat vs. 33% RepublicanNV - 34% Democrat vs. 38% RepublicanSource: NBC News analysis of TargetSmart data.Early registration data had her a little ahead nationally and in the Blue Wall states. If she held all the non-swing Democratic states and won the Blue Wall states it would have put her at 270 to win.Ed
- Presidential Election Predictions Data: Where We Stand
by
Ed DeNicola
(MediaDailyNews on
11/04/2024)
Hi Tony -- Thank you for the feedback and for the polling guidelines. They make a lot of sense. FiveThirtyEight's polling average is more complicated than it looks (see https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-polling-averages-work/).They're weighting the polls in the average based on sample size and for multiple polls from the same pollster in a short window. The error band is supposed to be for the 95% confidence level (two standard error). Have a great Election Day tomorrow!
- So Here's My Endorsement
by
Joe Mandese
(Red, White & Blog on
10/28/2024)
Hi Dan Ciccone --Joe Rogan and Bill Maher are comedians. Ben Shapiro is a pundit. None of these people create news.Joe Mandese's piece is opinion, and we're all entitled to one. I think you're confusing news with opinion and entertainment. News is supposed to be unbiased; whereas, opinion is inherently biased.When I worked for conservatives at Cambridge Analytica and was caught up in the Facebook scandal, the news media wouldn't allow us to tell our side of the story. It didn't matter what we said, they wanted to write about a scandal. MediaPost has been the only publication to give me a voice and let me express some of what I experienced there.I can understand you frustsration, but at the same time I think it is misplaced.Best regards, Ed
- The New Agile Political Media Campaign Cycle
by
Joe Mandese
(Red, White & Blog on
07/26/2024)
Hi Joe – Thanks for the shout out. Your prediction that there will be more prediction-key breakers to come is likely accurate. After this tumultuous election run up, Allan Lichtman might have to go back to the drawing board and reassess the 13 keys, maybe add another key for debates and one for assassination attempts. Although, it’s important to note that his 13 keys’ 2024 presidential election prediction has yet to be proven wrong. The jury is still out. Regarding the prediction markets, they’re not all equal. IEM has consistently predicted a democratic victory while PredictIt moves up and down more like the polls. What I find most fascinating recently is how current events are rewriting the future as measured by prediction science. It’s like watching the future unfold before it happens.
- Prediction Science Does Not Support Biden Dropping Out
by
Ed DeNicola
(Marketing Politics Weekly on
07/05/2024)
You make a very good point, Tony. Most lay people -- journalists, pundits, consultants and politicians -- treat polling numbers as if they're not subject to error. It's why I like to look at different data from a variety of research methodologies. I like your idea to use double the stated standard error.
- In Memoriam: Patrick Gottsch, The 'Ted Turner' Of Rural Television
by
Ed DeNicola
(Television News Daily on
05/21/2024)
I remember that, Maureen. Nielsen moved me into business development. RFD-TV was a good account! You also took over Dish and DIRECTV from me. They were a little hard to give up. I liked the DBS business too.