By now, many of you have undoubtedly heard of the
Trump TACO bet. If not, let me explain.
The way it works is that everyone knows that Trump never sticks with his draconian tariff threats and inevitably backs off as soon as he sees some
movement in the right direction as it relates trade negotiations with other countries. TACO is an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
Unlike the new Trump bet, the
TACO strategy isn’t done via actual betting. It’s a stock trading play whereby investors buy up stock when the market goes down because of Trump threatening to impose ridiculously high
tariffs on some big trading partner like China or the European Union. Investors buy stock knowing that the price will inevitably go up again when Trump backs off his wild tariff threat, at which time
they can sell it for a profit.
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There has recently been a lot of media press related to online rumors about Trump’s health. It has been reported that Trump’s death, health
and age are coming up as top Google search topics. You may have seen online pictures of bruising on his hand or of him having swollen ankles.
The new Trump bet is a true betting
play. BetOnline picked up on the viral Trump health trend and created a betting line for “Will Donald Trump Complete Current Term As POTUS”.
We should all take notice of
the results because betting behavior in the form of odds is proven to be good predictors of actual outcomes. It’s the reason bookies can make money.
BetOnline’s odds for
the “Will Donald Trump Complete Current Term as POTUS” bet are:
Yes – 1/1 (+100)
No – 5/7 (-140)
If you’re
unfamiliar with betting, 1/1 or +100 odds mean that the betting service is calculating that Trump only has a 50% chance of completing his current term. It gets worse when you look at the
“no” bet. The 5/7 or -140 means that based on incoming bets there is a 58% chance that Trump will not finish his current term. (BetOnline's odds are calculated and adjusted in real-time and at presstime they stood at -110 for yes, and
-130 for no.)
If I were a betting man, I would take those odds. I would bet the “yes” line.
For one, there isn’t a lot of other wisdom of
crowd’s evidence on the topic, but there is some. Two prediction markets -- Kalshi and Polymarket -- are running similar, although not the same, bets. They are both running markets for Trump Out
as President This Year (2025) with very low probabilities -- 7 and 6 percent, respectively.
While I’m not a doctor, I am studying to get a personal training certification in
preparation for the inevitable time when AI renders me obsolete as a media person. It never hurts to have one, or two, side hustles. As part of their job, personal trainers must be able to assess
clients’ risk for participation in physical activity. The American College of Sports Medicine’s CPT manual doesn’t say anything about bruising, but it does list ankle swelling as a
major sign or symptom suggestive of cardiovascular disease. It even has a name for it -- ankle edema.
If a personal trainer were to screen Trump to see if he were okay to participate
in a physical activity regimen, he would be required to have medical clearance.
On the other hand, ankle swelling isn’t listed as what they call an “absolute
contraindication.” It’s not even listed as a “relative contraindication.” An absolute contraindication would mean he isn’t allowed to participate in exercise. A relative
contraindication would mean that he could if his doctor determined that the benefits of exercise outweigh the risk.
At the end of the day, lots of elderly people have swelling and
bruising and it doesn’t mean they are likely to die anytime soon.
Although, according to the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics, Trump has already exceeded the
average mortality for a U.S male, which is reported to be 75.8 years. He’s 79 years old and still has three years to go on his term.
U.S. Census data shows that approximately
39% of men in the U.S. live to be 82 years old. However, a man’s chances of living to 82 increases with every year they live past age 65. If they make it to 65, there is a 50% chance
they’ll make it to live to 83, and Trump has lived well past that age.
In Trump’s televised Oval Office appearance yesterday, he was extremely lucid and didn’t at
all appear weak.
While I don’t recommend gambling and am not encouraging anyone to bet, I am more inclined to agree with the low prediction market probabilities for the current
year than I am to go along with the 50/50 (+100) BetOnline odds in favor of Trump completing his current term in office.
In my opinion, the “yes” bet is a good one, and
the 50/50 chance that he’ll live is pessimistically low. Trump has signs of cardiovascular disease, but nothing that has been disclosed as an absolute contraindication for cardiovascular risk.
He appears well on TV and still participates in exercise -- golfing.
While he has exceeded the average age of a U.S. male, the fact that he has lived well beyond 65 years implies
that he has a good chance of living at least three or four more years.
The viral online activity around Trump’s health and subsequent media coverage may be disproportionate to
Trump’s actual risk of dying while in office. Like the TACO investment play, the 50/50 (+100) BetOnline bet is likely to be another money maker for people that like to gamble.