• by October 16, 2003

No Home Run For Advertisers With World Series. No matter what happens in the seventh game of the American League Championship series tonight, a media buying firm predicts that it will at best be a standup triple for advertisers. On the eve of last night's seventh game in the National League championship series and the possible elimination of the Boston Red Sox by the New York Yankees in a sixth game, Initiative Media buyers and researchers came up with the dream matchups for advertisers who want the biggest ratings out of a hoped-for seven-game World Series.

But by the end of the night Wednesday, the Florida Marlins had something to say about Initiative's two E-tickets, Cubs-Red Sox and Cubs-Yankees. Both would have hit home runs, owing to the legendary status (albeit in different directions) of all three teams and fans spread throughout top media markets and the whole country. Initiative said the drama alone would have made Cubs-Red Sox not only a battle of the curses but a grand slam for advertisers. Initiative predicted a 29 share and 16.7 rating, compared to a 26 share and 15.7 rating for Cubs-Yankees.

While no one can say both the divisional and league championship series didn't exceed everyone's wildest expectations, from a media buying standpoint the remaining two matchups could be either not bad but not great... or a yawner. Initiative predicted a 23 share/14.1 rating - a triple for advertisers - boosted by the Red Sox's checkered past in the World Series and rabid fan base. But only one top five market - Boston - and its East Coast flavor would work against it. Florida doesn't even crack the top 10 markets.

As for a Yankees-Marlins World Series matchup, forget about it. Initiative said it would be a potential walk for advertisers. Now any student of baseball will tell you that a walk isn't a bad thing - just ask the Yankees last night - but it's not the same as a grand slam or even a triple, is it? Initiative projects a 21 share and a 12.4 rating. But Initiative also noted that the Yankees have been to the World Series five times in 10 years and that viewers are tired of them being there.

And that's exactly what Red Sox fans have been trying to say for years.

Penny For Your Cubs? It certainly wasn't planned that way, but Tribune Co.'s third-quarter earnings release and conference call began the morning after the Chicago Cubs' remarkable implosion in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series.

Tribune's management team is way too professional to be affected by the rise and fall of such a small part of its vast media empire, but you gotta feel sorry for Tribune as well as for the Cubs. More people were pulling for the Cubs to make it to the World Series than even the Red Sox. Rewind two weeks to Goldman Sachs recent Communicopia conference in Manhattan, when Tribune's President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis FitzSimons presented to Wall Street investors and analysts hours before Tribune's Cubs met the Atlanta Braves in the first game of the divisional championships at Turner Field in Atlanta.

FitzSimons, a native New Yorker, didn't hide his hope for the Cubs to appear in the World Series, which just about everybody by now knows hasn't happened since 1945. He allowed himself to ponder the matchup between the Cubs and Yankees. Yet the Marlins sent them home after last night's Game Seven, and the Red Sox might have something to say tonight about the Yankees chances.

This morning, FitzSimons was circumspect. When an analyst asked about how Tribune had benefited by the Cubs in the postseason, the Tribune end of the line allowed a few tired chuckles.

"Having won last night, it would have been better," he said. He said that it would be worth about a penny per share to Tribune stockholders.

"You all sound much better than I thought you would," the analyst replied. Listening in, Riff thought so too.

Some Men of the Year, But One Missing For All the Years. Surely, it's a fine group of lads that GQ magazine picked this year for its eighth annual "Men of the Year" Awards. This year's list includes some of the Riff's favorites: enthusiasm curber Larry David and actors Johnny Depp, Colin Farrell and Adrien Brody. Heck, even if he wasn't such a good actor, Brody would deserve the award simply for his impromptu smooching of Halle Berry while accepting his Oscar on live national television. Bill Murray, our favorite greens-keeper, is an inspired choice, but long overdue.

On the other hand, we're not so sure about the addition of Fox News Channel's Roger Ailes. But the Riff ain't saying anything more. The last time we ranted on a spooky conservative news icon, we got heavily flamed and lost more than our fair share of Riff readers, even if we were later vindicated when that very same incon-servative admitted to his illegal drug use and took himself off the air. But we're not naming names on that one. One name we would like to mention and one that is oddly omitted from this year's "Men of the Year" awards is the late, great editor of GQ itself, Art Cooper.

Would Six Plus Seven Equal a New Advertising Order? When WPP's chief executive Sir Martin Sorrell talks of the precarious nature of smaller agency holding companies like Grey Worldwide and Havas last month at the Goldman Sachs media conference in New York, many took it as just so much more brodacio. Sir Martin, after all, likes to mix it up with his rivals - whether it's in boardroom negotiations, the advertising trade press, or high-profile industry conferences. But the targets of his skepticism aren't keeping mum this time and say it actually may be WPP and its mega peers that have something to worry about.

In an interview with Reuters both Grey chairman Ed Meyer and Havas honcho Bob Schmetterer implied the big and "complex" structures of the Big 4 agency holding companies are only complicating matters for big advertising clients who are searching for simpler marketing services solutions. But what really caught the Riff's imagination was the notion that both these mid-size holding companies eventually might need to merge to stay relevant in the marketplace. And who better to partner with than each other? With Havas ranked 6th and Grey ranked 7th, the combination would provide the kind of clout necessary to go one on one with the biggies. Does this actually make sense? We're not sure, as we haven't evaluated the account rosters to consider the potential conflicts. Plus Havas is run by the French and Grey by a lock-gripped patriarch who shows no signs of letting go. That being said, Grey's Meyer did tell Reuters that should he get "run over" his board is "well aware of my succession plan." And as far as Havas' merger scenarios go, Scmetterer said, "Never say never."