Commentary

Real Media Riffs - Monday, May 30, 2005

  • by May 30, 2005
AMID THE NEARLY DEAFENING RATINGS SPIN surrounding the end of the official 2004-05 prime-time season, not to mention Nielsen's May ratings sweep, it's hard to know exactly who actually won. Chest-beating aside, it wasn't ABC, CBS, Fox, or even cable network TV that won. It was medium of television itself. At a time when the Internet, videogames, iPods, cell phones and a host of other new electronic technologies are supposedly cannibalizing on the time people spend with their boob tubes, more people watched TV during the 2004-05 prime-time season than during 2003-04.

The prime-time HUT (households using television) actually rose 0.9 rating points during 2004-05, and some key demographics - especially the female kind - were up even more, according to a Magna Global USA analysis of last season's Nielsen ratings.

Ratings for females 12-17 rose a full point, while women 18-34 rose 1.1 points and women 18-49 jumped 1.3 points. While viewing by males wasn't up nearly as much, at least they moved in the right direction: up.

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In fact, the least amount of prime-time ratings growth came from the type of viewers most marketers are least concerned about reaching: persons 50-plus. Not because they're not necessarily valuable consumers to advertisers, but because they're among the most abundant viewers to begin with. But even the older crowd managed to boost their prime-time viewing last season, albeit by only 0.2 points.



Persons Using Television

2003-04

2004-05

Chg.

Teens 12-17

27.4

28.3

+0.9

Persons 12-34

30.5

31.4

+0.9

Females 12-34

31.9

32.9

+1.0

Adults 18-34

31.7

32.6

+0.9

Women 18-34

33.7

34.8

+1.1

Adults 18-49

36.3

37.3

+1.0

Women 18-49

38.0

39.3

+1.3

Adults 25-54

40.7

41.4

+0.7

Women 25-54

42.3

43.3

+1.0

Adults 35+

46.9

47.5

+0.6

Adults 50+

51.4

51.6

+0.2

Source: Magna Global USA analysis of copyrighted Nielsen Media Research data. Seven-network affiliates includes PAX and the six broadcast networks regardless of whether they're airing network programming (e.g., 10-11pm on Fox, WB, and UPN affiliates)



As far as the intramural ratings battles go, ABC had the greatest gains among the major broadcast networks, boosting its position by six-tenths of a prime-time rating point, and nearly as much among the key demographics. NBC experienced a corresponding case of prime-time freefall. CBS was flat in households, but had good gains among important demos, though Fox nudged out the Tiffany Network among adults 18-49.

Among other viewing sources, ad-supported cable remained the fastest growing sector, albeit an increasingly fragmented one, and even PBS managed to movie in the positive territory.

In fact, the only major viewing source to see a significant decline during 2004-05 was pay cable outlets like HBO and Showtime. Personally, we'd attribute that to the fact that "The Sopranos" was off last, but could other factors be afoot? We mentioned it here before, but there's a strong theory circulating among some TV researchers that Nielsen's decision to bypass "technically difficult" households may be impacting pay TV ratings.

How? Because those technically difficult households - the kind that are apt to have digital video recorders or other complicated digital TV technologies - are also the kind that are most likely to subscribe to premium pay cable TV services.

If this theory is correct, then we should begin to see a corresponding increase in pay TV ratings as Nielsen reintroduces some of those technically difficult homes beginning in 2006. In other words, there will be a seesaw effect with pay TV ratings tottering upward, while ad-supported TV ratings will teeter downward. At least that's the theory.

 

Prime-Time Season Ratings/Share

 

2003-04

2004-05

Chg.

ABC

5.9/10

6.5/11

+0.6

CBS

8.4/14

8.4/14

0

NBC

7.3/12

6.5/11

-0.8

FOX

6.1/10

6.2/10

+0.1

UPN

2.3/4

2.3/4

0

WB

2.4/4

2.2/4

-0.2

6-Broadcast Networks

28.4/46

28.2/46

-0.2

7- Network Affiliates

31.5/52

31.0/52

-0.5

Ad Supported Cable

30.4/50

32.1/52

+1.7

All Other Cable

2.8/5

3.0/5

+0.2

Premium Pay

3.4/6

3.0/5

-0.4

Independents

2.9/5

3.8/6

+0.9

PBS

1.6/3

1.7/3

+0.1

Sum of Sources

72.6/119

74.6/121

+2.0

HUT/PUT

61.0/100

61.7/100

+0.7

Source: Magna Global USA analysis of copyrighted Nielsen Media Research data. Seven-network affiliates includes PAX and the six broadcast networks regardless of whether they're airing network programming (e.g., 10-11pm on Fox, WB, and UPN affiliates)

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