• by Ray Schultz , Columnist, March 5, 2024

Consumers aren’t totally to blame for believing misinformation. The burden also rests with the supply side of news, according to a new study from MIT.

“A key feature of news consumption is that it is interactive,” says author David Rand, professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management. “Consumers don't just make unilateral choices about what they consume, but instead, their choices depend on the content that producers produce. Game theory provides a formal language for understanding these kinds of multi-party interactions.”

Game theory? Yes. Rand and his coauthors developed a “misinformation game” model that looks at how news outlets decide to publish true or false stories and how readers choose whether to engage with them. 

The MIT team analyzed the relative success of 1,000 news articles from 40 outlets and integrated 20,000 accuracy ratings.

They found that more implausible stories generate higher engagement on known misinformation sites, whereas the opposite trend prevails on mainstream sites – more plausible articles receive greater engagement. 

Want to spread disinformation? We hope not, but this paper provides a how-to list and potential best practices. 

For one thing, successful purveyors of blatantly false news can drive engagement with a tactic that legitimate publishers well know – carefully choosing their audience. 

“Facilitating the microtargeting of news makes it easier for misinformation producers to ensnare users who prefer accurate information,” Rand says.  

But the real trick here is that the most effective strategy for false news providers isn’t simply publishing attention-grabbing headlines. They also need to provide a mix of true and false information over time, and increase the number of falsehoods as consumers let their guards down. 

This is no idle academic pursuit. 

“Understanding why people engage with misinformation has become increasingly important,” Rand argues. “Widespread belief in false information can destabilize democratic institutions, fuel populist movements and polarization, and undermine public health efforts, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

The findings might seem counterintuitive but don’t dismiss them. As the authors conclude, “News consumption does not occur in a vacuum, and to understand the dynamics of misinformation it is essential to explore supply as well as demand.”