• Advertising Age, Monday, April 13, 2009 9:30 AM

It looks like cable could lead upfront sales this year, something that hasn't happened since 2004. Buyers are suggesting that top-tier cable networks -- those that produce original programming that have gained ratings traction -- could see a few percentage ticks upward in their CPM, despite the troubled economy.

Media buyers say their clients are more interested in the cable networks this year, according to Marci Ryvicker, media analyst at Wachovia. There are two reasons for the shift. First, more advertisers are interested in reaching large slices of audience who flock to a particular topic, such as food aficionados who watch Food Network or kids who dash to Nickelodeon.

Secondly, while overall TV viewing remains stable, the broadcast networks' share of the pie continues to shrink. All broadcast viewing among adults is down between 5% and 10% from last season, with greater declines among younger people. "Ad-supported cable has picked up virtually all of the defecting broadcast viewers," says Steve Sternberg, audience analyst at Magna.

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