Commentary
Will TV Have To Face The Music, As The Music Industry Has Done?
- by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, March 1, 2010
During the past two years, the number of people who bought music dropped by 20% to 93 million in 2009, versus 116 million in 2007. This was a part of a 10% overall pullback in 2009 of all music revenues in all recorded formats.
The bright spot in 2009 was a 12% revenue gain in digital music sales. There are still some alarming stats here, though, because the total number of people who bought music - both digital and physical recordings - has declined.
I'm sure you're expecting me to note that pirated music had something to do with this. But actually this activity has been dropping.
The wild card for music is digital areas where free-streaming (not downloadable) music is available. The number of people using those areas is rising. They're also spending 13% less on music downloads.
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So is TV headed in the same direction? Though the movement is afoot to begin charging viewers for digital video, especially premium video, I'm guessing free ad-supported video platforms won't completely go away.
Viewers might gravitate to fewer free-ad-supported areas in the future - even if those areas are of lesser value. For example, there may be less-timely TV shows run -- perhaps days or weeks after premium runs elsewhere.
Right now, analysts will tell you TV and video consumption has never been higher, with no end of growth in sight. This has defied years of forecasts that overall growing entertainment options -- especially on the digital side -- would erode those more traditional video options, such as television.
I'm guessing some part of the TV/video business will hit a wall - some time -- just as Wall Street prognosticators had been saying in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006 that the overpriced stock market would meet its dismal fate.
If you hang around long enough, reasonable projections can go bad. Then again, some seemingly wrong ones do come true.
Wayne Friedman is West Coast Editor of MediaPost. You can reach Wayne at wayne@mediapost.com.
The point? Your story lacks any substance. You list a slew of reasons why TV is king the you say you are guessing TV will hit a wall because everything else has? It hasn't, even though other newer forms of entertainment would like it to. They have also been saying for years that no one will shop in stores anymore. It will all be online. I'm guessing that might happen one day too. Not even close as of now. I also hear an asteroid might hit the earth. When I was a kid they said the US would turn to the metric system because it was easier. I was also told that computers would make the work week 20 hours and eliminate paper. We now make 4 times as much paper as we did 20 years ago. Last I looked more people come off the subway at 11pm from work than I saw 20 years ago. Once they said that the TV and the web would all be available on one box. WEBTV tried it and failed. Others did too. Seems folks don't want a TV set that is also their portal to the web. That alone says something about convergence. TV is real-time, readily available, unpredictable and engaging. It has a soul that no new form of media does. Just guessing though...
What do you think would happen in the music business if people had to pay for any/all radio stations ? This comparison is like apples and grapefruit.
The key question is, if you won a sudden windfall, like a big lottery prize, would YOU invest in TV and video?
I wonder if the demise of TV presence & marketing started
in the late 1980's as an indirect consequence of the 'Home
Improvement' TV series.
How many of us started chatting with our "Neighbor Wilson's" and started thinking that they would rather be spending time in their "real-world community" and less time in their "alt-world community"?
Of course engaging computer games and i-net searching has factored in there. Could someone remind me why so many of us---spent so many hours--- chubbing away in front of a glaring/blaring monotube?
I think part of what will help TV sustain some growth and prolong any decline is the evolving technology of televisions themselves. As of right now, the best quality you can get for TV is watching at home on your 60" plasma. Before too long, everyone will have a 3D television at home. What's next? Not sure, but they'll come up with something.
Until online streaming and other sources of video content can get up to par on the quality, TV ratings will continue to be OK (especially in the sports realm - who wants to watch football anything other than an HDTV?).
In the meantime, we'll use mobile content and online streaming when we're on the go, at work, or if we miss something and forget to DVR it (or if we're in the 60% demographic without a DVR). As is, this is just a filler, it's a long-lasting threat to TV and it as a ways to go to become that threat.