• by Sarah Mahoney , Staff Writer @mahoney_sarah, June 28, 2023

With so many experts predicting a recession, it’s hard for retailers not to sense dire third-quarter results around the corner.

But Coresight co-founder Deborah Weinswig disagrees, as does Ethan Chernofsky, senior vice president of marketing at Placer.ai, which measures foot traffic in malls and stores.

“To date, the data doesn’t suggest recession,” Weinswig said in a Coresight webinar, where the two sized up expectations for the coming third quarter.

She acknowledged many challenges, including the reduction of SNAP benefits for many people, the “unforgiveness” of student loans and the resetting of adjustable-rate mortgages as interest rates rise.

“If you’re paying more on your mortgage, then you have less to spend in stores,” she said.

Yet, on the other hand, there’s a stack of encouraging data, including low unemployment, plenty of people with side hustles and a large swath of people working for themselves.

“That’s a lot of factors coming together to suggest the third quarter will be okay but not great,” Weinswig added.

And that likely means a decrease in unit sales, even if dollar sales rise.

Chernofksy agreed, noting that the change in student loans especially will be “very challenging.”

But based on Placer.ai’s data through late June, “there are signs we are moving in a positive direction, including strong buzz at outlet malls over Memorial Day.”

He was most encouraged by traffic at off-price retailers and movie theaters.

And both Weinswig and Chernofsky see remarkable resilience in retailers. “The negative narrative very often gets exaggerated,” he said. “Pre-pandemic, the narrative was the retail apocalypse. Overall, there are periods that are challenging and then some that are less so, and there are paths to success in each.”

Amazon’s upcoming Prime Day is designed to inspire many bargain-hunters to start back-to-school shopping, and retailers are already rolling out events, promotions and markdowns.

The Children’s Place, for example, is teaming up with the Jonas Brothers for the Best Day Ever Back to School Contest.

That effort aims to put $100,000 in grant money toward a single K-8 public school, which parents can nominate through the retailer’s app.

The spot promoting the contest features Nick, Joe, and Kevin Jonas; Kevin’s wife, Danielle Jonas; and daughters, Alena and Valentina Jonas. It also showcases the fall collection.