• by April 8, 2004

China is expected to lead the world in the number of broadband subscribers by the end of the decade, according to a new report by eMarketer. In its "Broadband Worldwide" report, the aggregator of data on new media estimates that by 2007, China will surpass all of Asia with 54.5 million broadband subscribers, overtaking Japan's 35.9 million and nipping at the heels of the United States, which is projected to have 58.3 million subscribers.

Last year, China was ranked third with 12 million subscribers, trailing the United States (27.6 million) and Japan (13.6 million), according to eMarketer. Earlier this year, the research firm reported that broadband added its 100 millionth subscriber on a global basis; the number is supposed to reach 300 million by year-end 2004.

"We are quickly approaching the end of the first age of the Internet, the dial-up age," says Ben Macklin, eMarketer senior analyst, in a statement. "Spanning approximately 10 years from 1995, the era will come to a close in 2005, when there will be more broadband connections worldwide than dial-up. The broadband age, beginning in 2005, may perhaps span only five years, as a new age will emerge--for some countries as early as 2010--the age of bandwidth-on-demand."

Other findings from the eMarketer report include:

--In the United States, more than half (53 percent) of online households will have high-speed connections in 2005--up from 45.1 percent in 2004, 36.3 percent in 2003, and only 8.9 percent in 2000.

--The Asia-Pacific region will continue to dominate global broadband growth. In 2004, eMarketer projects that the region will have 56.6 million broadband households, topping North America's 37.7 million, Western Europe's 28.7 million, and Latin America's 2.3 million. Asia-Pacific will surpass 100 million broadband households in 2007.

--In 2003, South Korea led the world in broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants at 22.7 million, topping Hong Kong (16 million), Canada (14.3 million), Taiwan (13.5 million), and Denmark (13 million), as of 2003. Japan is expected to lead by 2007 with 28.1 million, followed by Denmark (25.4 million), South Korea (25.2 million), Hong Kong (23.2 million), and Canada (22.4 million).

The ongoing growth of broadband around the world is good news for online advertising. "For advertising, we can expect strong growth in two completely different forms of advertising," says David Berkowitz, editor, eMarketer, continuing: "One is search, which is based on text ads; and just as it keeps growing in popularity, we're going to see a lot more room for rich media [advertising]. We'll see a surge in both kinds. Broadband can play a large part in making that happen," he says.

Yahoo! is a likely beneficiary of broadband-related advertising and marketing growth. The Internet bellwether reported that its first- quarter profit more than doubled as it reported earnings late Wednesday. Yahoo! was bullish on the outlook for traditional and search-based advertising, growth in its premium services, and broadband subscribership.