• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, March 13, 2007

Go ahead and face the terrible thought of your advertising creative genetics: Your baby is ugly.

Marketers of the Association of National Advertisers will get just that type of analysis from broadcast networks, cable channels and syndicators in future years, should they force those media sellers into giving them exact ratings per commercial.

And with that comes more honesty.

“You’d have to go to an advertiser and say, ‘Your baby is ugly, we’re pulling it off the air,’ ” Alan Wurtzel, president of research at NBC Universal, told The New York Times. “Well, who are we to say that?”

Still, the argument the ANA will make next week is that it’s better to know than not know the unattractive truth.

Lost in all the translation is research that talks about commercial ratings in the context of their programs. The data points out that 90% to 99% of program ratings will give you an approximate commercial rating. And, among those numbers, the “A” or first position will get the highest score.

Right now, all that Nielsen Media Research may be able to offer is average commercial ratings -- not the exact number, which is estimated to hit the market around May.

What will we see? Those dishwasher powder commercials will have a hard time competing with a “Spider-Man 3” spot. The end result will be that TV networks will charge up Sony Pictures Entertainment for that high-rated commercial and offer a washed-out price to the consumer product that puts the shine in your soup bowl.

Of course, it won’t end there -- just move to the next level. It won’t be whether consumers are engaged in any particular commercial – but whether consumers are engaged in the first 10 seconds, five seconds, or perhaps one second of a message.

Marketers want more granular measurement because competing digital media such as the Internet demand more laser-like niche decisions in micro-targeting media dollars.

But all this can’t work right now.  Minute-by-minute ratings are unstable, given the current Nielsen panel size.

When will the microscopic detail to marketing stop? Until we buy dishwashing powder and a ticket to “Spider-Man” in the seconds right after those messages might hit us.

Until then, your baby needs at least a haircut.