• Editor & Publisher, Tuesday, July 3, 2007 11:01 AM

A Goldman Sachs analyst has slashed his growth forecast for the newspaper sector after indications from publishers that no relief is in sight for the industry's woes. "The magnitude of the recent declines is extraordinary for a non-recession period and provides concrete evidence, in our view, that the share shift from print to online in the publishing industry is accelerating," says Peter Appert.

Among the companies most at risk are McClatchy and The New York Times Co., both rated by Goldman as "sells," due to the pure-play nature of their businesses. Among the other downers Appert points out: newspapers no longer rule the classified section; margins are under pressure; and the transition period from print to online will be both "painful" and "extended."

It could, in fact, take as long as five years, and things could eventually brighten a bit. "Ultimately, we believe newspaper publishers will re-emerge as very healthy and dominant players in the local media marketplace," Appert says.

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