• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, January 9, 2008

The Golden Globes are only the start. Who will ultimately win for the award for best no-show awards show? The Grammys? The Academy Awards?

NBC's losing some $15 million in advertising revenue is a drop in the bucket, which comes to around $450,000 for a 30-second commercial.

What would happen if ABC can't do the Oscars under the same unions' -- Writers Guild of America/Screen Actors Guild --  stranglehold? At a much higher $1.7 million for each commercial, that becomes a nice $110 million bet.

Can ABC give cash back of $110 million to marketers? Or will it make good that high-priced, mostly female-skewing advertising inventory in "Cashmere Mafia" or "Notes from the Underbelly"?

CBS already aired "The 34th Annual People's Choice Awards" on Tuesday night as a mostly taped event, showing more than 25 pre-taped acceptance speeches. CBS may come out somewhat better for its Grammys broadcast, as fewer participants are also SAG or WGA members.

Still, networks should be concerned. Major talent might still shy away, or, conversely, rush to make emotional pro-writer industry statements instead of embarrassing acceptance speeches.

Maybe TV executives will become a bit more humble now that SAG has tag-teamed with the WGA to put the kibosh on The Golden Globes. They may need to rethink their strike plans -- that reality shows, big sporting events, and major award events will get them to the television season finish line.

But there is a lot more protesting, picketing, and media executive name-calling to come, because the WGA is feeling more huffy and puffy, having busted the big, glamorous, red-carpeted Globes into a modest little press conference covered by NBC News.  (Surely there is no other news worth reporting this time of year for that fine news organization).

WGA probably figures to keep going until someone cries uncle -- perhaps attacking any big event where glamorous performers walk amid flashing cameras.

WGA strategy could broaden, picking on anything network-related. Not only scripted shows, but unscripted reality efforts, more award shows, -- and, just maybe, sporting events.

Isn't the Super Bowl also offering a red carpet pre-show, hosted by Ryan Seacrest? Won't there be performers walking down that aisle?  Don't the football players have a union?

Just helping out .