• BusinessWeek, Tuesday, May 5, 2009 3:44 PM

You may reasonably expect, given current ad spending cuts and consumers' ongoing fascination with everything digital, that this will be the year the roof caves in on network TV ad spending. Not so. In a bad economy, skittish marketers are not about to abandon the familiar comfort of the 30-second network TV spot.

It is entirely possible, says columnist Jon Fine, that the big broadcast networks will end up owning a greater share of the overall ad market in '09 than they did last year. And cable networks are expected to fare better than the big broadcasters. If total U.S. ad spending declines by around 10% and the networks' dollars decline around 6%, they will end up grabbing market share.

Marketers will continue to pull away from other media much faster than TV because of the three F's: finite, familiarity and fear. Network TV has finite inventory. The nets still own their airwaves and still tightly control limited airtime. In tough times, the familiar is comforting. When everyone knows failure can cost you your job, "no ad form is more familiar than the good old 30-second spot." Marketers are also fearful of missing out -- not getting their ads on the hottest shows and losing out to a top competitor who does.

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