Commentary

Where Will YouTube Be in Five Years?

Like many of my nerdy counterparts over the last two weeks, I stood in line last week to pick up my new Apple iPhone -- but rest easy knowing that while this phone is cool and probably my favorite gadget ever, I'm not going to be writing about it today. Nope; I'm here to ask about YouTube, because the iPhone is outfitted with a YouTube player built into the interface, and last week LG also announced plans to create a YouTube-enabled mobile phone that allows users to watch, create and upload videos directly from their handsets.

YouTube is becoming its own brand, far beyond the reaches of the PC. I was at the Grand Canyon three weeks ago and I happened to have on my YouTube T-shirt, which caught its fair number of points and murmurs from the many younger folks running around that big crack in the ground. People were taking videos of their trip, and I heard some mumblings about uploading their videos to the Web. I knew they had only one primary site in mind for that purpose !

As YouTube's brand moves beyond the PC, it is expanding into mobile -- something I had not anticipated. By being baked directly into the iPhone, YouTube own the video capabilities of that phone. That's probably a good explanation for why the iPhone doesn't have MMS capabilities... Google and YouTube paid for YouTube to be the sole means of viewing videos on the actual OEM interface.

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YouTube is venturing into the territory that NBC, CBS and ABC should probably be considering. They are trying to own the video interface for the consumer by ensuring that all online video is associated with their brand. Some of the tech companies are placing their bets on the mobile interface, while other companies are placing their bets on the TV interface, or rather the remote PC interface with the television set. Microsoft is trying to get into that game and Apple is still trying to make the iTV work out as well.

While the TV brands are trying to create a new P2P video interface, the established players are already seeking new places and new ways of interacting with the consumer. It's a race between proactivity and reactivity: one group is trying to improve upon an existing idea and the other is trying to meet up with an existing idea, albeit in a new manner. I know where I would tend to place my money since the "me-too" strategy never seems to be the right one, but then again Google was born out of a "me-too" strategy (search already existed, but two guys thought they could do it better.

My guess is that YouTube is positioning itself for greater things than being just a place for watching UGC videos. Whether the company gets there or not, it will be a fun road to watch; I enjoy seeing people and companies try new things. Hats off to YouTube for giving it a go!

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