Commentary

GoogleClick: Opportunity For Web Site Analytic Packages?

I recently saw "Apocalypto," Mel Gibson's controversial movie that theorizes the downfall of the Mayan empire (no, I am not about to predict the downfall of Google). But I did wonder whether or not the players in GoogleClick, and all of us in the audience, were somehow focused on the big issues (competitive balance, shift in power in display advertising, privacy concerns) while a different threat slowly and quietly approaches the arena. If this threat emerges, it could lead to big change in the world of analytics.

Google is obviously the giant in the space. Some days I do root for the company and its strategists. For instance, I would actually like to see them homogenize the vast, politicized mass of traditional media and digitize it all under a common standard of metrics. At least one benefit of Microsoft was that the company homogenized the desktop, so we don't now generally worry about Wordperfect to Lotus 1-2-3 to Word conversion (even Mac users don't worry about conversion anymore). However, with the completion of the acquisition of DoubleClick, I wonder if Google has now sparked an unpredictable change. The company is not at risk in terms of its core business of search, but I do believe the door is open for Web site analytic packages, like the tools that Omniture produces, to shift the balance of power in the world of analytics.

I believe there are three reasons for this.

The first, and probably most obvious is this -- that along with the ease of centrally serving ads, and with the wonderful job DoubleClick has done on the publisher side to create standards, a big point of value was that DoubleClick was a true third-party auditor of results. All of us who recall the nightmare of the days before DoubleClick remember being unable to quantitatively question what a publisher said happened, and how every publisher defined visits, pageviews or landing page hits slightly differently.

Some may say the precedent for auditing tools in the hands of biased entities exists -- that Atlas is now in the hands of Microsoft, and prior to that was in the hands of aQuantive. I still wonder if regulatory bodies actually understand our business well enough, and furthermore, as an analytic professional, I would like to see a bigger outcry at putting the two biggest auditors of Web marketing in the hands of clearly biased holding companies. At the end of the day, even if Google can ensure a thick enough wall intended to convince us that they would not use DoubleClick data to fuel competitive advantage, I believe the perception of bias will be hard to stamp out.

The second reason is that Web site-based analytic tools can do everything adserving packages can do, and map marketing activity back to Web site actions to a more comprehensive level. Ask anyone who has gotten comfortable with Omniture -- they may tell you that not only can they get the same data views as with an adserver, but they can save the 4% to -5% that it might cost to use an adserver on top of a Web site analytic tool (which is a tool every Web marketer should have anyway). The fact that Omniture sought to integrate Genesis with DART perhaps becomes moot now, since it would seem likely that Google may employ Google Analytics in integration with DART to provide perhaps the best publicized, truly integrated Web marketing (display and search) and Web site analytic package.

The third reason is talent pool. Perhaps because DART is simpler to administrate, my observation is that the pool of talent capable of administrating DART is larger than the talent pool capable of competently administering a Web-log based analytic package. However, I have to believe this is going to shift -- demand is already strong for Web site analytic talent, and will only increase as Web analytics grows as a profession. Casually compare the salary profile of a DART trafficker and an Omniture administrator, and you'll see what I mean.

Even so, one can never count Google out. Perhaps they can change the value proposition away from an independent auditor to a truly integrated tool, and perhaps that is enough to sway the masses. Certainly the price of "free" has been compelling for Google Analytics. Google has the scalability and sales force to make a difference -- to the dismay of those that value a higher standard for objectivity. However, I do think GoogleClick poses a severe test to the integrity of the Web analytics profession. While I may ultimately be wrong, I think the Web analytics profession should do everything possible to ensure that every marketer understands the cost benefit of GoogleClick -- and the alternatives that may exist.

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