• by Diane Mermigas , September 15, 2008

Who thought Bill Gates had the comic genius to be a consummate straight man for Jerry Seinfeld and the right stuff to be an online video star? Emerging digital content and advertising will never be the same!

The new Microsoft ads are the start of a $300 million campaign, from MDC's Crispin Porter + Bogusky in Miami, designed to revitalize the company's buttoned-down image. They could inspire a new genre of short-form, must-see content chronicling the travails of celebrated CEOs "going grassroots."

It's not hard to imagine News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch referring a jugular standoff between Bill O'Reilly of Fox and Keith Olbermann of MSNBC. Or how about feisty Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone physically wrestling MTV clips away from Google's peer video-sharing YouTube? How soon before regular folk are blogging with Bill and jamming online with Jerry?

It could be great virtual theater and company personification in the grand style of Gates' bridge pal Warren Buffett, the public face and persona of his Berkshire Hathaway. Having recently stepped away from daily duties at the company he created, Gates and comedian Seinfeld are spending time with regular folks--at Shoe Circus and with their "new family"--to become more like them. Their early exploits are readily available at YouTube, MySpace and Microsoft's Web site. The soft sell is so subtle, only a Microsoft logo punctuates the story ads with an enigmatic punchline like "The future. Delicious."

In-between chuckles and mixed reviews, you can't help wonder whether the clever campaign has broader implications for taking digital content, in tandem with the advertising that pays for it, to the next level. This will be the focus of the opening panel I moderate Sept. 18 at OMMA Global New York. Now that the industry is more comfortable with transferring some television content and advertising to the Web, many are ready to go where few have gone to date: more original, creative, unexpected forms of made-for-digital content and marketing.

Of course, the incentive will be the money. Online video advertising is gaining traction--growing 56% this year from a near-zero base. eMarketer says that growth will peak at 79% in 2012, when traditional and alternative media companies will be distributing more professional-quality video content online as a result of that year's Olympic Games and national elections.

Video advertising is more valuable to marketers for its branding power; publishers want it for its higher CPMs and overall revenues. Then again, maybe the ultimate measurement (or qualifier) will be the individual consumer connections and the rich targeted data, communications and transactions it generates. Maybe it's not about pure numbers, but the ongoing cause-and-effect response--and that requires a major adjustment in value propositions.

Maybe the adventures of Bill and Jerry will become a video ad series. Marketing pitches, like content, work best when consumers want to see them. Once consumers routinely seek out compelling online video content or advertising, there will likely be an affinity-driven transaction--or at least an ongoing interactive rapport. That is where we are headed. But that kind of ambient digital coexistence will take shape in enterprising new forms over time.

That is why, for now, live sports continues to be the sure bet; it's compelling, must-see online video. In that sense, Reliance Entertainment's new majority stake in Willow TV, which streams cricket events on at least five continents, is instructive. As the domestic TV networks become more convinced of the untapped value of streaming national football leagues, championship tennis and gold, they will learn how to price specially produced and placed companion content and marketing. It's part of the ongoing evolution.

Still, the numbers are small. eMarketer estimates that marketers will spend $1.4 billion to reach 154 million online video users in 2008, which translates to 73 cents per online user per month. By 2011, markets should be spending $4.3 billion to reach 183 million online video viewers, which translates to $1.96 per viewer per month.

It's anyone's guess whether intriguing new forms of online video content drive new forms of online video advertising, or vice versa, or whether they will integrate into some lucrative hybrid creature. With Web sites such as Hulu and the TV networks' companion brand sites generating only roughly one-fifth to one-fourth the revenues they generate from their traditional advertising models, it's going to take more than catch-up, repurposed video from prime time to attract sufficient online user attention.

The most formidable competition for now are the social networking "friends" on Facebook, YouTube and MySpace, who would prefer to watch each other's dogs roller blade. YouTube drew 5 billion U.S. online video views in July--double from a year earlier--even while all other online video views declined, according to the latest comScore tracking. Google still is not sure how to monetize it.

The video that consumers watch online monthly versus television is 1 to 32, but the digital transition and integration has only just begun. From a quantitative standpoint, the numbers are virtually meaningless, except to confirm apparent trends. But those who produce content and advertising must play to interactive consumer behavior, relevance and preference.

Maybe, for now, Bill and Jerry can help show us the way.