• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, October 8, 2008

September sales results--often seen as an early peek at what the upcoming holiday season will be like for retailers--were enough to cause most store execs to want to cover their eyes and scream.

While overall, preliminary sales tallies were up 1.7% for September, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, which tracks the performance of major chains, they were almost all confined to the value stores. "September was a very tough retail environment with only a few bright spots," it says.

Walmart's same-store sales in the U.S., excluding fuel, gained 2% compared to the same period a year ago--even with hurricane season forcing many closures. And sales at the company's Sam's Club unit gained 4.6%. At Costco, sales gained about 6%, while rival BJ's Wholesale Club saw a gain of 5.6%.

But that was about the extent of the good news, as consumers struggled to make sense of wave after wave of economic bad news, not to mention a trio of hurricanes.

Target, for example, says its sales fell 3% for the month, "below our expectations [and] reflecting continued daily volatility," the Minneapolis-based chain says in its announcement. It warned investors that it might not be able to meet its third-quarter earnings forecast due to "challenges in the current environment, including weak top-line growth in our retail segment and higher net write-off rates in our credit card segment."

JC Penney, where same-store sales sank 12.4%, sounded a similar alarm. "We believe it is prudent to lower expectations for the coming months," the company says.

Other department stores also suffered--not just at the mid-tier level, with sales dropping 12% at Dillard's and 5.5% at Kohl's, but also among higher-end chains. Sales fell 10.9% at Saks, 9.6% at Nordstrom, and 1.1% at Neiman Marcus.

Nor are industry experts expecting much improvement next month. "We expect October sales to post an increase of about 1.5-2.5%," predicts ICSC, "as there will be no change in the underlying trend."