• Portfolio, Wednesday, October 15, 2008 9:17 AM

Merrill Lynch media analyst Jessica Reif-Cohen offered a deeply sobering outlook at the Dow Jones/Nielsen Media and Money conference yesterday. "This year's been horrific" for the media industry, said Reif-Cohen, and next year won't be any better.

"Expectations that the recession will last a year or less are unlikely to be correct."

She predicted this consumer spending recession will resemble pre-World War II downturns, which typically lasted 18 months. Media stocks will start to rebound a quarter before the recession ends; ad spending won't recover until a quarter or two after it ends, she says.

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