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Dave Morgan

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Articles by Dave All articles by Dave

  • It's Time For Industry To Change The Way TV Is Measured in Online Spin on 11/20/2014

    It may seem a bit like piling on, but I think that it's finally time for the TV industry to change the way audience and ads are measured, bought and sold. Its measurement is broken and needs to be fixed. Just this past week, quite uncharacteristically, even Nielsen made a case for fixing things.

  • TV Ad Industry Terrible At Marketing in Online Spin on 11/06/2014

    If you bring up the topic of television among industry folks these days, you're very likely to hear that the TV ad biz is on its last legs, with audiences and ad effectiveness evaporating into the ether of digital video, YouTube, smartphones and Facebook. Many say it's only a matter of time until the multichannel TV package goes the way of the milkman. (For younger readers: Yes, there was once a time when you got your milk and butter delivered to your door early in the a.m. by local dairies.).

  • How Come So Many Marketers Have Mobile-First Strategies, But So Few Are Hispanic-First? in Online Spin on 10/23/2014

    Lots of folks talk about the importance of multicultural marketing in the U.S., but you don't hear many of them talk (or implement) Hispanic-first marketing or media strategies, despite the enormous growth and importance of Hispanics as the critical growth market for so many U.S. consumer brands. Ironically, almost every day, we hear many of these same brands declare themselves to be social-first or mobile-first. How come?

  • The Future of Media Is About Business Outcomes -- Not Media Outputs in Online Spin on 10/09/2014

    Our industry could spend its time trying to wrangle the collection and valuation of a massive number of different media output metrics -- like making sense of TV GRPs and print pages in the face of banner impressions, search queries, social likes and tweets. Or we can shift our energies from the media outputs, which are proxies, to their provable contributions to clients' business outcomes. In fact, we as an industry must focus on the business outcomes sought by marketers, whether it is the generation of leads, driving traffic to stores, or sales of products.

  • Measurement Is The Medium  in Online Spin on 09/11/2014

    In the 1960s, Marshall McLuhan famously coined the phrase "the medium is the message" to suggest that the medium in which a message or communication is delivered many times influences or overshadows the message itself. Thus, the fact that a politician's speech is broadcast on television has a bigger impact on how an audience receives it than the message of the speech itself. I think that if McLuhan were to look at the digitizing and transforming advertising media business today, he would say that the measurement is the medium.

  • Media Fragmentation Means Ad World's Future Based On Audience, Not Content  in Online Spin on 08/28/2014

    Content may be king, but the future of media buying in a digital world will be founded on audience, not content. Powered by audience fragmentation, the foundation of marketers' media strategies will have to be built first on finding, aggregating and communicating with specific people, not funding specific content.

  • My Two Cents On Advertiser Versus Agency Debate  in Online Spin on 08/14/2014

    I want to thank Nancy Hill of the 4A's and Bob Liodice of the ANA for examining the critical issues of talent, compensation and the media and advertising industry's slowness to change in back-to-back columns in The Wall Street Journal's "CMO Today" earlier this week. Each courageously went out on a limb, and our industry will be better for it.

  • Four Near Certainties In Media & Marketing In 2019 in Online Spin on 08/01/2014

    While most of what will happen in the future may be a surprise, I believe that there are a lot of things that will happen in the media and marketing industry in the near future that aren't that hard to predict -- certain things so likely to occur, they are almost inevitable. In fact, you could view them as near certainties.

  • What Does All This Media Biz Consolidation Mean? in Online Spin on 07/17/2014

    Mega-mergers have been the talk of the media industry for the past year. It started with the biggest video programming distributors in the U.S., Comcast and Time Warner Cable, then AT&T and DirecTV, and we've had lots of additional dancing among folks like Charter, Dish, Sprint and T-Mobile. Two consistent rationales have been driving the deals. First, the perceived need to gain scale to support massive anticipated growth of on-demand video usage across multiple digital devices. Second, the perceived need for leverage to push back on content owners and their desire for higher pricing.

  • Ads On Cups & Cutlery Next Big Winners In Meeker's 'Time Spent' Analysis in Online Spin on 07/03/2014

    Many folks in the ad and financial industries are way too literal in how they apply Mary Meeker's "time spent" analysis. It's a useful tool to show the imbalance between time spent and ad spend between print media and online media, for example, but the blunt application of the model to claim that ad spend should mirror time spent -- which is what it is used for thousands of times a day -- is wrong, and misses the fact that different media and different devices can deliver quite different advertising experiences and impact.

Comments by Dave All comments by Dave

  • It's Time For Industry To Change The Way TV Is Measured by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 11/20/2014)

    John, Ed, great stuff. I think that it would be great to back-up the declared data with lots of matched, but de-identified actual purchase behavior. Finally, there are lots of set of credit card and shopper card data available, and in near real time. Plus, lots of retailers and brands are finally working with first party purchase data and digital interaction data in a systematic way. With big sets of privacy/safe matchable set-top box data, you can now truly tie attribution off at the household impression level. Exciting times are ahead.

  • It's Time For Industry To Change The Way TV Is Measured by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 11/20/2014)

    I'm with you John. Average minute audience is critical for true comparability, and server-based measurement has lots of issues if it's the only measure. We still need to have gold standard panel data, no matter how much direct measurement we utilize.

  • It's Time For Industry To Change The Way TV Is Measured by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 11/20/2014)

    Ed, thanks for the comments. While I don't think that it's realistic to expect a full census, directly measured TV world anytime soon (or ever), you can certainly capture de-identified viewing data on many millions of TV & video users and match it to all of the different kinds of first and third party data that captures advertisers' desired business outcomes - sales, web site visits, search, etc. Also, I agree, that making ROI available as part of TV media doesn't mean that all of the advertisers are going to know what to do with it or what they want from it. That will take a while for sure.

  • TV Ad Industry Terrible At Marketing by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 11/06/2014)

    Great points Rich. You were able to say it more simply and clearly that me. Thanks!

  • TV Ad Industry Terrible At Marketing by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 11/06/2014)

    Martin, you make many great points, and I agree that it can sound a lot like newspaper conferences from the 90's and '00 ... I was at many of them as well. However, unlike newspapers, TV doesn't have a user problem. TV viewership is still extraordinarily strong. While I cite Nielsen data, I can tell you that viewing data taken directly from tens of millions of TV set-top boxes tells the same story. Of course, I used Judge Judy as an example to make a point - no one would think that it alone was bigger than YouTube. But, as I wrote in my comment above, The Big Bang Theory on CBS is 7X bigger than all of YouTube in delivering audience ad minutes. There is no question that the TV business is in for some cataclysmic disruption - and soon. However, that doesn't detract from the core point that the industry is quite insular and bad at telling its story to folks who need to hear it - marketers who are inundated daily with stories of the need for social, mobile, video first strategies.

  • TV Ad Industry Terrible At Marketing by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 11/06/2014)

    Good point Leonard. Let's look at a show with strong Millenial viewership. The Big Bang Theory on CBS cumes more US audience ad minutes in a single 30-minute episode than all of YouTube does in an entire week.

  • How Come So Many Marketers Have Mobile-First Strategies, But So Few Are Hispanic-First? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 10/23/2014)

    Great question Xav. Arguably, all marketers should start with their category customers and growth market customers and define their "general" market from there. For many, many US brands, the answer will be defined as young and Hispanic. The notion of general market doesn't really need to exist in the media world we are seeing emerge with a multiplicity of high reaching, segmentable communications channels.

  • Simulmedia Strikes Another Nielsen Deal, Licenses CPG Targeting Data by Joe Mandese (MediaDailyNews on 10/15/2014)

    Neil, as David points out, larger data sets with more granular viewing and purchase data that can be matched now makes this possible. In the end, it's taking it down to the impression level on the media side and the product level on the advertiser side. Historically, all were bundled. Going forward, they will be dis-aggregated, both in campaign delivery and measurement.

  • The Future of Media Is About Business Outcomes -- Not Media Outputs by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 10/09/2014)

    Mark, I'm not sure at this point as to exactly which agencies are best at this, but I do know that we're seeing a lot of movement by the larger agency groups like Horizon, Carat, Group M, SMG, Zenith Optimedia and Havas to make this a key part of their strategies. I also think that some of the best work on the ground is being done by mid-size regional agencies and independents like Carmichael Lynch, Cripsin Porter, OLSON, Haworth and Media Storm. Also, digital shops, from bigger players like Digitas and 360i to smaller players like True North and Mediasmith have done some great work in this area.

  • The Future of Media Is About Business Outcomes -- Not Media Outputs by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 10/09/2014)

    Ken, my belief is that we will see outcome based media measurements first on those channels that proveably drive them with scale, predictability and speed. Thus, channels like search, TV, radio, online display, digital video and FSI's for categories like retail, financial services, QSR and e-commerce will be measured and managed that way earliest. Subtle, soft metrics like "likes" and "tweets" will have to prove their way if they want to get significant budget allocations. Data collection and data science has reached a point that we can now determine whether those techniques truly drive short and mid-term sales effects. In the world of business outcomes, if it can't delivered measurable outcomes, it won't get measurable budget spend.

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