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Dave Morgan

Member since March 2008 Contact Dave

Articles by Dave All articles by Dave

  • Coming This Fall in Online Spin on 08/20/2015

    We're in the lazy days of August, when most in the media and advertising business are vacationing, or at least taking Fridays off, and everything slows down. It's hard not to let your mind drift to the future and wonder what might be in store for us this fall. Here are some five near-certainties that we should expect to greet us in the months ahead:

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? in Online Spin on 08/06/2015

    It's been a tough 24 hours for TV companies in the U.S. Ever since Disney's earnings call Wednesday that warned about network affiliate fees going forward, the stock market has been brutal on all TV companies, even those that surprised with better earnings that investors expected. At one point today, the major TV companies in the U.S., from Disney to Time Warner to Discovery to Viacom were down 10%-28% from the day before.

  • Electricity Poised To Be Biggest Ad Medium In 2016 in Online Spin on 07/23/2015

    Yes, it's true. Electricity is poised to be the biggest ad medium in 2016 -- more than TV, Internet, radio and digital place-based media combined. Amazingly, this trend seems to have come out of nowhere. Of course this is a ridiculous headline, and calling electricity an ad medium is a silly way to compare various media to each other.

  • Moving Past The Echo Chamber Of Our Own Jargon in Online Spin on 07/10/2015

    GRP. CPM. CPA. DSP. DMP. That is how we talk to each other. That is how we talk to our clients. That is a problem.

  • Why I Skipped Cannes in Online Spin on 06/25/2015

    I skipped Cannes this year. This isn't the first time I've done so, nor is it the first time that I've written about skipping Cannes. I'm not necessarily trying to sound triumphant, but I found a better place to for me to be this week. I was participating in Nielsen's Consumer 360 event in Washington D.C. instead.

  • Fraud, Viewability And Rebate Issues All Cut From The Same Cloth in Online Spin on 06/11/2015

    Anyone who doesn't believe that the digital advertising industry has real issues with fraud, viewability and rebate-like vendor payments either has their head in the sand or really doesn't want to know the truth. The purpose of today's column is not to convince you that these issues exist -- evidence isn't hard to find if you really want to look -- but to point out that the root cause of all three is the same, and is solvable.

  • Digital Disruption? Just Getting Started, And Going Horizontal in Online Spin on 05/14/2015

    You think you've seen digital disruption? You haven't seen anything yet. It's just getting started. What's been vertical disruption is about to go horizontal in a big way.

  • Media Agencies Aren't Going Away -- But Being 'Agents' Might in Online Spin on 04/30/2015

    The business of media has changed so much over the past few years that the notion of media agencies being "agents" of advertisers may no longer apply. That's the message that Irwin Gotlieb, CEO of WPP's Group M, delivered to a room full of advertising executives at the ANA's Financial Management Conference in Phoenix this week.The context for Gotlieb's Phoenix ANA address was the current swirl of allegations of undisclosed agency rebates. He isn't alone in calling for a reevaluation of how clients and advertisers work together. I applaud the industrywide focus on transparency, and the recognition that the dialogue needs to get into foundational issues, not just the controversy at hand. In fact, I'm hoping that the industry uses this moment to look at an underlying macro issue that is at least partly to blame for many of the problems we're facing today.

  • Can Awareness and Attribution Live Together? in Online Spin on 04/16/2015

    For years, many folks in media have questioned whether brand advertising and ROI can live together well. Awareness, a key metric of brand advertising, has for many been seen as mutually exclusive from a metric like sales attribution, a key measurement long associated with direct response.

  • TV Networks May Face Musical-Chair Future in Online Spin on 03/19/2015

    People can stop wondering whether "real" television programming will escape the multichannel bundle and find its way to U.S. homes through online streaming services. You can't read the news these days without confronting yet another story about a new over-the-top streaming service with top branded TV content.

Comments by Dave All comments by Dave

  • Coming This Fall by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/20/2015)

    Great stuff Paul! All of your's are certain to come true.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    John, it's true that one's waste may be another's growth, but 50X frequency against the same audience in a few weeks - what movie studios do to heavy broadcast prime viewers - doesn't help anyone. There is some waste that is just waste.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    Paula, actually, none of the optimizations that I described require personal databased ad targeting, only reallocations of ad spots according to broad datasets. To be sure, as TV becomes more addressable and as advertisers want more predictable and provable ROI, we will see the introduction of more audience data. However, even for most of that, it won't require personal data, only the usage of anonymous of anonymously matched data, such as closing the loop on ad deliveries by tying what ads people view to what they buy.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    Ed, you've raised the $64,000 question. I totally agree. If TV advertising is going to grow in the optimized world that is unfolding, TV companies needs to learn to serve thousands of smaller advertisers efficiently and deliver predictable, provable and profitable ROI. They're never really done that before. TV companies' capacity to do it over the next few years will mean everything for the industry.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    Michael, thanks for pointing out UK moves in this area. Another area where the UK TV industry has led well is in proactively driving thought leadership and market moving research with Thinkbox.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    Great point Neil. It would be in the TV ad industry's interests to help build up some of the crowd-sourced creative companies (mostly built on networks of agency freelancers) that have had some difficulty getting real traction, in spite of doing some very good work.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    Jaan, you make very good points, all of which I think that TV companies would do well to pay attention to. One of the key issues that will determine the 1) issue you raise is whether TV is able to bring in newer and smallers advertisers with more targeted, ROI-centric packages to make up for the smaller ad packages that will be bought by their legacy advertisers. There is a real possiblity that they could get shapper marketing money if they could make their packages more performant, predictable and provable. If they are able to bring new dollars to the table, things could go well for them. If they're not, you're right, they could be in for a tough time.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    Ed, also, I am very much in agreement that just applying common sense would dramatically improve TV media planning, buying and delivery. In fact, if everyone in the industry would read Erwin Ephron's book, "Media Planning," and do what he says, the entire industry would be optimized by 10-15%. We give a copy of the book to every new hire at Simulmedia.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    Ed, yes, that is exactly what I mean. Our analysis of audience ad deliveries ad the spot level shows that most networks (and we've analyzed all of them) can achieve 10-15% target reach & frequency optimization just by moving spots within the promised dayparts to the optimal pod. You don't need to move between days or dayparts to achieve that result. If you take away the day and day-part constraint, the optimization opportunity actually goes up to 40% or more.

  • Will Stock-Diving Fears Finally Drive TV Companies To Make Decisions They've Avoided? by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 08/06/2015)

    Ed, Thanks for the comment and catching the type. As to you suggestion that my recommendations are not feasible today, I asolutely disagree. Each of them are possible now, particularly if folks don't let the pursuit of perfect get in the way of better. One, TV companies can easily step up their ad sales marketing efforts. All they need to do is copy what YouTube and Facebook do. Both of them are great at it. Two, TV companies can do some simple analysis of Nielsen's Audience Watch or wtih Rentrak or TiVo and see where they are over-delivering campaign spots to the same heavy TV viewers and adjust their rotations and day-part mixes to reduce the dramatic over-frequency. They can probably reduce the total GRP's by 10% and give advertisers 5% lower rates, have a better experience for all and another 10% of inventory to sell, which is needed today given some of the ratings declines. Three, all of the TV companies are doing something in the app and VOD offerings, they just need to add more intensity and more risk-taking to their efforts, I think. They need to be buidling CCRM (consumer customer relationship management systems), just like digital publishers do. Four, as described in Two above, there are a lot of win-win yeild optimization opportunities. They just need to dgi far and wide and make it a key strategy in their business. Historically, waste was their friend. No longer.

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