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Dave Morgan

Member since March 2008 Contact Dave

Articles by Dave All articles by Dave

  • TV Networks May Face Musical-Chair Future in Online Spin on 03/19/2015

    People can stop wondering whether "real" television programming will escape the multichannel bundle and find its way to U.S. homes through online streaming services. You can't read the news these days without confronting yet another story about a new over-the-top streaming service with top branded TV content.

  • Data Will De-Commoditize TV Advertising  in Online Spin on 03/05/2015

    There is no question that data and digital approaches are going to reshape the future of the TV advertising industry. Just look at the headlines this past week. Nielsen, the TV measurement company, is buying eXelate, a digital ad data management platform. Comcast is rumored to be buying AudienceExpress, an automated TV ad-buying platform. So it sounds as if the TV ad business is on a slippery, data-driven, audience-based digital slope headed to an inglorious commoditized future like online display, with falling CPMs, where content-driven adjacency and brands have largely been kicked to the curb, doesn't it?

  • Media Usage Does Not Always Mean Ad-Reach Opportunity  in Online Spin on 02/19/2015

    Judged by their actions and words, it seems many industry folks believe that "media usage" is directly linked with a corresponding opportunity to reach those people with ads. On the contrary: The two things are not the same, and believing it won't make it so.

  • Four Ps Will Drive Future Of TV Advertising  in Online Spin on 01/15/2015

    There is not much of a question that more and more companies -- buyers, sellers and intermediaries alike -- are going to use a digital approach to TV advertising. Earlier today, NBCUniversal sales head Linda Yaccarino announced the launch of the company's own audience-targeting platform for linear TV campaigns, enabling NBC to package, sell and deliver audience-denominated campaigns based on third- and first-party data sets. For example, the company would leverage Fandango data to better target, deliver and measure movie campaigns (Comcast NBCUniversal owns Fandango).

  • Shifting Media Business From Outputs To Outcomes Will Break A Lot Of Eggs in Online Spin on 12/18/2014

    I've written before about why I believe the media industry's future with most brand advertisers will be all about delivering specific business outcomes (leads, sales, etc.), in a predictable, provable and scalable way, not just about delivering a promised basket of media outputs (impressions, GRPs, etc.). The more folks in the business I talk to about this issue, the more certain I am that it will happen.

  • What WON'T Happen In 2015? in Online Spin on 12/04/2014

    Now that we're past Thanksgiving and holiday parties are already upon us, it's time to think about 2015. While I don't mind making predictions -- it's fun, and I'm always trying to understand what might be coming next -- I thought I would be a bit contrarian today and write about what won't happen next year.

  • It's Time For Industry To Change The Way TV Is Measured in Online Spin on 11/20/2014

    It may seem a bit like piling on, but I think that it's finally time for the TV industry to change the way audience and ads are measured, bought and sold. Its measurement is broken and needs to be fixed. Just this past week, quite uncharacteristically, even Nielsen made a case for fixing things.

  • TV Ad Industry Terrible At Marketing in Online Spin on 11/06/2014

    If you bring up the topic of television among industry folks these days, you're very likely to hear that the TV ad biz is on its last legs, with audiences and ad effectiveness evaporating into the ether of digital video, YouTube, smartphones and Facebook. Many say it's only a matter of time until the multichannel TV package goes the way of the milkman. (For younger readers: Yes, there was once a time when you got your milk and butter delivered to your door early in the a.m. by local dairies.).

  • How Come So Many Marketers Have Mobile-First Strategies, But So Few Are Hispanic-First? in Online Spin on 10/23/2014

    Lots of folks talk about the importance of multicultural marketing in the U.S., but you don't hear many of them talk (or implement) Hispanic-first marketing or media strategies, despite the enormous growth and importance of Hispanics as the critical growth market for so many U.S. consumer brands. Ironically, almost every day, we hear many of these same brands declare themselves to be social-first or mobile-first. How come?

  • The Future of Media Is About Business Outcomes -- Not Media Outputs in Online Spin on 10/09/2014

    Our industry could spend its time trying to wrangle the collection and valuation of a massive number of different media output metrics -- like making sense of TV GRPs and print pages in the face of banner impressions, search queries, social likes and tweets. Or we can shift our energies from the media outputs, which are proxies, to their provable contributions to clients' business outcomes. In fact, we as an industry must focus on the business outcomes sought by marketers, whether it is the generation of leads, driving traffic to stores, or sales of products.

Comments by Dave All comments by Dave

  • TV Networks May Face Musical-Chair Future by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 03/19/2015)

    Gian, I agree. Gurley's piece is the best I've read on the topic. However, given the events of the past few months, it's clear that the programmers are now willing to walk on the edge and test the cable, satellite and teleco folks, probably believing that they don't have much choice, since those companies are buidling their own independent streaming bundles anyway. For sure, it's a very fine and volatile line they walk.

  • TV Networks May Face Musical-Chair Future by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 03/19/2015)

    Thanks Stephen, I think that the big issue with consumers will be how subsitutable some of the channels are for each other. Gian makes a good points about the importants of sports, but many fo the entertainment channels might be quite swappable in a smaller bundle. Plus, if you add a $9.99 Amazon Prime package, you might only need a few sports & news channels to be satisfied.

  • TV Networks May Face Musical-Chair Future by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 03/19/2015)

    Ed, yes. There's no question that the TV companies have a lot of levers to pull, from ad rate changes to controlling programming costs to creating new services, to try to mitigate losses from shrinking audiences and carriage fees. However, not all are likely to be adept and successful if they're fighting big battles on multiple fronts at once. It will certainly be interesting to watch.

  • TV Networks May Face Musical-Chair Future by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 03/19/2015)

    Gian, I think that your point is one that everyone is going to be watching very closely - can sports continue to sustain, and support, other programming. If sports breaks out of the bundle - say ESPN offers its own standalone - it could ahve some pretty devastating effects.

  • TV Networks May Face Musical-Chair Future by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 03/19/2015)

    Neil, I totally agree on the vicsious cycle issue. it probably won't take too much shrinkage in total subscribers and in the fees to kick the cycle off, and you can imagine that in a monthly subsciption product, retention rates can change pretty quickly.

  • Data Will De-Commoditize TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 03/05/2015)

    Excellent points Susan. My take on your questions is that: 1) I expect hybrid pricing, probably based on a target CPM but guaranteed to readjust to a performance metric and, 2) some proprietary methods of ad measurement (like Google search clicks) maye survive as a currency if they are as self-evident to buyers, but the vast majority of ROI media will have third party validation.

  • Simulmedia Offers Ad Guarantees To Enhance Media Buys by Wayne Friedman (MediaDailyNews on 03/05/2015)

    Jim, it's based on closed loop reporting with experimental design. Comparing millions of exposed and unexposed households that are directly matched (de-identified for privacy purposes) against actual household purchase data - depending on the advertiser, it is from credit cards, loyalty programs, customer records, shopper cards, etc. All impressions - Simulmedia and other TV media running concurrently or historically - are analyzed from impression to impact with the same method. Our platform contains all ads being run, not just our own. The A/B control and massive data sample normalize for any other non-TV media or communications.

  • Data Will De-Commoditize TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 03/05/2015)

    Ed, lots of good stuff there. Thanks. I think that the eyeball tonnage folks are likely to move faster than premium CPM folks, once they realize that they can drive more provable, profitable sales by adjusting their plan. However, the fastest movers will probably be folks who aren't in Tv heavily today - like e-commerce or mobile app developers - who can really benefit from TV's power, but need to see data and dashboards like they have in digital before putting money into a media channel. It will be interesting to see.

  • Data Will De-Commoditize TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 03/05/2015)

    Great point Paula. I don't believe that audience data and computer-driven decision-making will be the only way TV advertising will be bought and sold in the future. Human judgment and content adjacencies will still be a critical part of it

  • Empirical Data Proves TV Now As Accountable As Digital, Brands Can Have Their 'Cake, Eat It Too' by Joe Mandese (MediaDailyNews on 03/04/2015)

    Ed, very good points. The results we showed at the ARF event we're intended to suggest that the entire ocean of all brand ad spend and sales effects can be boiled down to perfect knowledge. However, it is now indisputable that you can account for the short term and mid-term sales effects of TV ads for virtually any direct to consumer brand advertiser - retail, entertainment, restaurants, travel, financial services, telecom, e-commerce - and many manufacturer categories as well. You may not know all of the commercial communication events that contributed to the sale, but you will be very confident that "but for" the TV ad the sale would not have occurred. That is an enormous step for TV media, which never wanted or could be accounted for that way.

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