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Dave Morgan

Member since March 2008Contact Dave

Articles by Dave All articles by Dave

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon in Online Spin on 01/19/2017

    Yes, streaming services are starting to eat away at multichannel TV. So what if 50% of today's linear TV viewing shifted over to streaming services over the next three or four years? A lot would happen. Hundreds of billions of dollars of retail brand sales could be put in jeopardy, while brands' relationships with retailers would change dramatically. Here's why:

  • Customers Are Not Commodities. Why Does Advertising Treat Them Like They Are? in Online Spin on 01/12/2017

    Technology is starting to transform marketing, starting with how enterprises talk to consumers. We have websites, ecommerce, email and mobile apps. It's so much easier for customers and marketers to proactively connect than ever before. Now that we have all of these digital touch-points and databases, marketers and their corporate information officers and finance officers are looking for models to organize and manage all of these marketing and advertising activities. And, quite naturally, they are looking for guidance to models that worked on other parts of their business. Not surprisingly, many have focused on what has worked for their supply chain and have tried to apply supply chain-oriented models to their "demand chain."

  • What 2017 Will Bring  in Online Spin on 12/09/2016

    Dave Morgan's predictions: from the rise of enterprise tech and STEM marketers to the fall of the term "programmatic."

  • Moving Past The Echo Chamber Of Our Own Jargon in Online Spin on 11/17/2016

    GRP. CPM. CPA. DSP. DMP. That is how we talk to each other. That is how we talk to our clients. That is a problem.

  • Just The Facts, Please -- In Our Industry As Well As Politics in Online Spin on 11/03/2016

    I've never before fully appreciated the importance of people and politicians grounding their analysis and arguments in facts and logic to the level I do now. There's nothing like a dizzyingly crazy U.S. presidential campaign, along with a spate of rhetoric-filled, emotional debates on issues like climate change, immigration, media partisanship, policing, race relations and the rise or fall of crime in America, to make you appreciate the importance of fact-based discourse.

  • Many TV Networks Growing -- Just Not The Big Ones in Online Spin on 10/20/2016

    Headlines about TV viewership have not been particularly positive. Common themes lately have been: "TV ratings plummeting," "NFL viewership in decline,""Millennials unplug from TV," or "Cord-cutting, cord-shaving growing." Then there's a big favorite lately: "TV can't deliver reach like it used to." While there's some truth in all of these ideas, they don't tell the whole story of TV viewership today.

  • The NFL Is Not Bulletproof in Online Spin on 10/06/2016

    What's behind the downturn in ratings for NFL games so far this season?

  • Keys To Transparency in Online Spin on 09/23/2016

    Everyone is pretty much past any notion that the ad industry doesn't have a transparency problem. We know it does. The issue has been around the U.S. biz in its latest forms for a number of years, and certainly got worse over the past five. And, thanks to the ANA, K2 and Ebiquity, the issue is now part of the discussion whenever and wherever industry folks get together. We will certainly hear a lot about it next week, when Advertising Week descends on New York City.

  • The Most Important Book I Read This Summer in Online Spin on 09/09/2016

    Like many of you, I suspect, I've been a bit bewildered by the amount of popular support for Donald Trump and his rhetoric. After reading Peter Drucker's "The End of Economic Man: The Origins of Totalitarianism," I have a much better understanding of Trump's rhetoric and the reception he's been given by portions of the American populace today.

  • Marketing Technology Will Collapse The Digital-Ad Supply Chain in Online Spin on 08/25/2016

    I've written a couple of times recently about my views on the rise of marketing technology and its implication for our industry. Lots of folks have been reacting to it, so I'm taking that as a message that I should continue to push forward on this meme. I believe that the rise of mar tech is going to have an enormous impact on the structure and operation of the digital advertising supply chain. Put simply, it will obliterate the supply chain as we know it today.

Comments by Dave All comments by Dave

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 01/19/2017)

    Doug, Yes. Folks have been saying for years that Bezos would run out of room, but he keeps find new high margin businesses that can leverage value built in adjacent businesses. It's interesting to know that more people buy more books today than they ever did, so he certainly knows how to grow unit volumes in markets by creating more choice and lower prices. I think that Amazon and its investors will find that premium video will be a very nice complement to e-commerce and digital data storage/delivery and that fact that they can deliver it on the margin for free will give them a lot of profit potential once they pay down the cost of creation and/or acquisition. This will be fun to watch.

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 01/19/2017)

    Henry, Yes. I put up the 50% as a stalking horse. However, I do think that the only issue will be the time period, not whether SVOD can hit that percentage. It may take 5 or 6 years, but I do think it will get there. Also, while I'm probably in the minority here, I also think that most of SVOD will stay ad free. Yes. I remember well when pay cable networks like MTV started and we all thought that viewers would never tolerate both paying for the programming and also getting ads. But now, with SVOD and the ability of companies like Amazon to distribute if with virtually no incremental cost on the margins, we are very likely to see premium video become a free 'premium' bundled into more and more Prime-like subscription services, whether for shopping or insurance or banking or transportation ("buy your Ford today and get 2 free years of premium video viewing"). In a world like that, I think that ad-free will win big with consumers over ad-interrupted and, therefore, will be table stakes for video subscription or video 'premium' packages.

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 01/19/2017)

    Darrin, very good point. Thanks so much. Of course, the way Judge Judy's ratings are determined prevent perfect apples-to-apples comparison to national cable and broadcast shows; but, the way syndication shows report ratings are very consistent with how digital video is reported and makes it a very relevant way to compare Judge Judy's ad load to all of YouTube.

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 01/19/2017)

    Seth, I'm not sure that Netflix has the chance to win at the same level as Amazon will. Today, Netflix's only economics are generated from what it can get consumers to pay for video content. It certainly has a great business, but Amazon is converting the same video content as Netflix into a "free toaster" to get people to subscribe to its buying/delivery service, which drives much more powerful economics and network effects than Netflix is ever likely to achieve. It may be perceived as a White Knight to networks, but only because it is helping them fund their studios and content production. However, if they lose their ad revenue streams over time, they may end up as just high end 'job shops' making content. Not the most powerful and defensible business model.

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 01/19/2017)

    Ed, I agree that the presumption that SVOD and TV viewing are inevitably in competition is wrong. For sure, the introduction of robust, accessible and affordable streaming services are creating even more total video viewing than we had before. However, it is also now clear that there is some share shift of viewing happening and, maybe more importantly, the reduction of channels in some multi-channel bundles is accelerating the shift, whether intended or not, and potentially creating a self-reinforcing 'death spiral' for networks since the more they pull networks like Esquire out of bundles the more those networks will shift to OTT only and the more viewing will shift to streaming services.

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 01/19/2017)

    No worries. Proud to be called Wayne too :-)

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 01/19/2017)

    Ed, I agree with you that the idea of 50% shifting that fast is not truly realistic, though many in the industy actually think it might happen. As you point out, it certainly can't happen without part of the shift being driven proactively byTV programmers themselves to manage their businesses that directly. This week's news about NBCU's Esquire dropping multi-channel distrubiont and going OTT is a good example. However, even if it doesn't get to the 50% level and only hits 20 or 30%, that a lot of lost TV ad supply and would probably be pretty consequential.

  • What 2017 Will Bring by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 12/09/2016)

    Thanks RJ. I do expect that the large enterprise tech folks will build out professional service capabilties i this area, startig with technology and data integration and following with strategy. Of course, they will also lean heavily on ccnsutling firms who they have worked with over the years, like McKinsey, Acdenture and others. Getting into creative services may not make as much sense to them, unless it is for focused on industrialized creative production, for example. I don't think that they want to be in unquantifable parts of the business.On the rpivacy front relative to the DMP being ingested into the CRM, I think that we'll see next gernation developments from folks like Axiom and Experion and Neustar that will help pave the way here, as well as moves from Oracle and other enterpise tech. They all deal with private and proprietary information salefly all day long.

  • Addressable TV: If It's So Smart, Why Isn't It Rich? by Ted McConnell (Online Spin on 12/01/2016)

    Great piece Ted! Spot on.

  • Just The Facts, Please -- In Our Industry As Well As Politics by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 11/03/2016)

    Great point David. I do believe that some notion of self-evident "trust" is one of the elements that we've lost from our industry over the past 10 years. It used to be that you could start buyer-seller discussions with a base level of assumed trust and it remained until explicitly violated and folks didn't have to proactively investigate every claim in advance. We're certainly not there anymore. It's well past "trust, but verify." It's verify, verify, verify, and only then, maybe trust.

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