• by Teresa Buyikian , March 26, 2026

Fast food prices have increased exponentially over the last few years, but the increase the consumer sees isn’t nearly as high as it could be.

Recent USDA data from January 2026 shows that food-away-from-home prices were 4.0% higher than the previous January, with a projected 3.7% total increase for the entire year.

The release of McDonald’s  Big Arch earlier this month, which ranges in price from $7.46 in lower-cost areas to over $12.99 in major cities, sparked a plethora of social posts complaining about the burger’s high price.

But a recent report from Dataessential reveals that while QSR burger prices appear exorbitant, they actually pale in comparison to the rising cost of beef itself.

The Burger Price Index shows that while burger menu prices have increased approximately 14% since January 2023, beef production costs have actually “surged” approximately 32% over the same period.

But burgers remain the top driver for QSR visits, and for many brands signal the overall affordability of the chain. Thus QSR locations are still shouldering a great deal of the increased beef price burden.

“Operators can't simply pass every cost increase directly to the consumer,” said Jim Emling, CEO of Datassential. “The data shows just how carefully restaurants are managing pricing on high-visibility items like burgers while balancing costs across the rest of the menu.”

But burger price increases do appear to be slowing (not including new menu items). In December 2025, QSR burger prices were only 0.4% higher year-over-year. But this doesn’t extend to fast casual or full service dining venues, where prices have risen roughly 16% since 2023 for fast casuals, and 12% at full-service restaurants.

As for the Big Arch, early data shows consumers may not be willing to shell out for the premium offering. A recent report  from Placer.ai found that the heavily publicized Big Arch generated just a 2.2% YoY traffic boost during its launch week of March 2 to March 8.