A Wall Street analyst is warning that ad revenue trends at The New York Times Co. could get even worse in 2008 as a drop-off in movie and luxury advertising drags the Gray Lady down. Those two
categories helped the company in the third quarter of 2007 -- when revenue was up 3% compared to an industry decline of 7% -- but they may soon dry up.
"Although [the New York Times']
recent success in growing its national ad revenue is a positive, we wonder if investors have been lulled into a false sense of security," says Bank of America's Joe Arns. Luxury merchandise and box
office sales slipped in the fourth quarter, he notes, citing Mastercard's SpendingPulse report, which showed a 2% decline of luxury goods sold during the holiday period and a box office receipt slip
of 4%.
He estimates that luxury goods and movie ads represent about 15% to 20% of The New York Times' newspaper ad revenue.
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