U.S. Consumers Signal Surprisingly Strong Holiday Spending Amid Gloomy Sentiment

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U.S. consumers may be talking themselves into a recession, but new research suggests they won’t be shopping like it. Big Chalk’s 2025 Holiday Outlook forecasts a solid spending season, even as major sentiment indicators flash warning signs.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index slid to 50.3 in November, its lowest reading in three years, and the Conference Board’s Expectations Index remains below the recession-signal threshold of 80. Ordinarily, those numbers would point to a weak retail season.