• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, November 1, 2010

A Wall Street analyst predicted Monday that customer losses at Cablevision due to the Fox standoff were minuscule. The figure is pegged at .3% of Cablevision's TV subscriber base, according to a report from Sanford Bernstein's Craig Moffett.

Moffett figured that just about all customers leaving the cable operator moved to Verizon's FiOS service, with fewer than 8,000 shifting over. As of June 30, Cablevision had 3.07 million TV subscribers.

Over time, the departures could be greater as order backlogs are filled, Moffett wrote. But he indicated that Cablevision monitored its call center closely and found subscriber erosion small enough that it was "emboldened" to continue fighting until giving in Saturday.

One reason more customers didn't leave is that they likely anticipated a swifter end to the 16-day dispute, where Fox programming would be restored to their sets sooner, Moffett says. Others include Cablevision customers in Connecticut being able to get Fox on a Hartford station and many subscribers being unable to get satellite service, since they live in apartment buildings.

Also, both Verizon and DirecTV had "capacity constraints" on how quickly they could meet any demand by rolling up trucks and taking the time for set-ups.

Wells Fargo's Marci Ryvicker wrote that many subscribers stayed because leaving meant they would have had to pay for breaking contracts. Also, an "informal survey" found most customers "blamed" Fox and not the oft-criticized Cablevision.

So with Cablevision losing few subscribers and Fox getting an estimated 50 cents to $1 per subscriber over the course of the new deal, who won the battle?

Both Moffett and Ryvicker indicated it was News Corp., which had sports programming as a lever. If the dispute lasted another day, that would have meant no New York Jets game on Cablevision. The team has loads of fans on Long Island, Cablevision's home field.

"There was never any ambiguity about who had all the financial leverage in the negotiation. Fox is too large, Cablevision is too small, and Fox's sports programming is too indispensable," Moffett wrote. Cablevision looks to have been "playing" for the FCC to get involved and mitigate the payment amounts, but that didn't happen.

Ryvicker said that from what she had read, "it sounds like Fox played hardball and won -- and we believe it all boils down to sports."

Cablevision should offer more insight into customer losses when it reports earnings for the third quarter. Throughout the Fox wrestling, investors did not waver in apparent support of the cable operator; indeed, they encouraged it to soldier on. And on Monday, they sent shares up 1%-plus.