• by John Gaffney , March 13, 2003

Better check those double-digit rate increases for network TV.

That was the message late this week from Bill Koenigsberg, president and CEO of Horizon Media, and one of the top players in the upcoming upfront sales process. He echoed many of the sentiments expressed at the ANA Forum in New York regarding current market conditions, and even suggested that the upfront sales period will last longer than programmers want.

“The (network executives) are a lot more bullish on this years upfront than I am,” Koenigsberg said. “We have not yet been able to gauge the available dollars from our clients for advertising, and we will advise them to hold back on spending dollars for increased rates on TV shows.”

Programming execs like Viacom’s Mel Karmazin are positioning the current, early part of the upfront negotiation by expecting 20% rate increases and an early sellout. Koenigsberg says he will advise clients to be cautious about buying for 2003 for several reasons. First he said Horizon’s research shows that late 2003 and early 2004 may not be the economic recovery that networks think. He has some issues with the inconsistency of network programming, especially among reality shows. Most importantly, he thinks the upfront will be a long event. Not a quick close like last year.

“The media is preoccupied with inventory management right now in relation to the potential war,” he said. “Those and other things will make this a drawn out process. I’ve never been a big fan of the all-night pajama parties where you stay until you get the rate you want on the shows you want for your client. You can’t juggle billions of dollars of inventory in this current climate and deal with the needs of an upfront process. We’re going to give clients the information they need to make smart decisions.”

Koenigsberg has also weighed other factors regarding the upfront. He is concerned that make goods could crowd the fall schedule if a large volume of TV is held commercial free for war coverage. He is also concerned that the trend toward reality TV will make ratings inconsistent for those time slots and eventually cost the network billion in lost syndication revenues.