• by Michael Shields , August 8, 2004

There's been plenty of buzz in the weeks and months leading up to the 2004 Summer Olympic Games in Athens. Unfortunately, it's been focused on Greece's slow preparation, fears of terror attacks during the Games, and athletes being tested for performance-enhancing drugs.

But as the Aug. 13 opening ceremonies for the Games draw closer, does any of this matter to viewers? Is the hugely popular sporting event lacking the right kind of excitement?

Thus far, buyers have expressed some uncertainty.

"I am concerned about a lack of star power," said Larry Novenstern, Deutsch senior vice president/director of national buying. "In the past Olympics, we had Carl Lewis, Marion Jones competing in all her events, and a real USA Basketball dream team. There doesn't seem to be as great a buzz."

"Everyone is basically a little concerned," agreed Ray Dundas, senior vice president/group director, national broadcast at Initiative Media. Dundas concurred that stars are necessary to sell the games to Americans who are otherwise unfamiliar with these athletes.

"NBC is putting an awful lot of heat on Michael Phelps," Dundas said. Phelps, a swimmer who is predicted by some to compete for as many as seven gold medals, is being heavily promoted in NBC's ads. "He is just 19 years old, and there is an awful lot on his shoulders," he added.

For its part, NBC is confident that the Games will reach their usual level of success, although the network isn't releasing any ratings estimates. Dundas said that NBC had promised advertisers a prime time household rating of around 14.0, which he called "a little ambitious," given that the Games will be broadcast in August when viewing levels are generally lower.

While NBC isn't talking ratings, it is saying that profits are strong. "We guaranteed profitability in the range of what we did in 2000," said Cameron Blanchard, NBC senior director of sports communications.

Reports had profits for the Summer Games in Sydney in the neighborhood of $50 million. Total ad sales that year were estimated at $900 million dollars, with a record $1 billion in sales a distinct possibility for this year.

Still, this year's Olympic Games are not sold out; reports have approximately 96 percent of the inventory gone, which is not unusual (in 1996, one advertiser was said to have closed a $1 million deal on the day of the opening ceremonies).

However, Initiative's Dundas says that NBC is $50 to $60 million dollars off its target, and that closing the final week of sales will be tough, given that NBC is limited in the discounts it can offer because so many of its advertisers have purchased multi-Olympic packages with guaranteed rates.

As for the speculation over doping athletes, Deutsch's Novenstern did not necessarily see that as a bad thing: "Anything to raise awareness is good," he said. "I guess in this case there is no such thing as bad publicity."

Dundas disagreed, saying: "It could turn viewers off."

Yet despite all of the uncertainly surrounding the Games, buyers still have faith in the power of the event's widespread appeal. "It's still the Olympics," Novenstern said. "It's still a spontaneous sporting event. It's a great vehicle that is staged over 17 days."

Added Dundas: "Somebody that we have not thought of could become a big medal winner and drive interest."

The Athens Games should have an advantage over the 2000 Games held in Sydney, where a 14-hour time difference allowed for few live events. Ratings for those games were at their lowest point since the Tokyo Games in 1964 (Athens is seven hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time).

One thing that is out of buyers' and NBC's control is the possibility of a terrorist attack. If that were to occur, it would dramatically affect coverage. "The bottom line is, if a sporting event becomes a news event, [NBC] is not going to run commercials," Novenstern said.