• by Aaron Baar , December 7, 2015

The current holiday season hasn’t felt particularly urgent this year for a number of reasons: the weather, a shift to more online and mobile shopping, and perhaps, the lack of a must-have tech gift this year. But the overall economy is still strong.

In a call with reporters on Tuesday, economists from the National Retail Federation and the Consumer Technology Association highlighted aspects of the current holiday shopping season and looked ahead to its final three weeks.

“There are great deals to come and consumers will still be in the marketplace,” said Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist for the NRF, noting that some consumer buying patterns have been shifting this season, with more shopping happening online and more retailers advertising their Black Friday deals well in advance of the actual day.

“We saw consumers start November on a strong mood, and we saw a shift in traffic patters with the broadening of the traditional [shopping] period, and a shift online,” said Shawn DuBravac, the CTA’s chief economist. “December is going to become a more important period for the holiday shopper more broadly going forward. Consumers will not feel the need to run out [early] and grab what they want for fear [inventory] will run out.”

Consumer patterns are shifting to more online and mobile shopping. The CTA expects online retail to grow 14% and mobile retail to grow 35% over last year, according to DuBravac.

“Some other shifts are also taking place,” he said. “Black Friday was [previously] about doorbusters, but consumers are showing an inclination of delaying that shopping. … When it comes to technology, you’ll see consumers head out in December and buy the things they saw advertised in the Black Friday period.”

Among those things that will be advertised are products in emerging technology categories, he said. While there hasn’t been a “must-have” technology gift this year, categories such as wearables and drones will benefit from the holiday buzz, while other categories — like console video gaming — will see boosts in peripherals and accessories rather than high-priced consoles, he said. 

Looking forward, both organizations forecast continued modest overall economic growth, with a strong consumer confidence. As an election year, consumer communications in 2016 will continue to move into less traditional channels, as political candidates purchase more ad space, DuBravac said. 

“Retailers are going to have to look for other ways to connect with their key customers,” he said. “They’re going to have to derive strategies to maintain a relationship and engagement among the customers.”