• by Brad Weltman , Op-Ed Contributor, December 22, 2015

With the first session of the 114th Congress soon over, it’s time to look ahead.  Popular opinion in Washington has the second session of Congress pegged as a yearlong lame duck.  The recently released House Calendar has only 111 days set for action; the Senate just a handful more.  

One of the longest August recesses in history, steals scores of days from the second half of the year, leaving just 42 to get down to business.  And with seemingly half of the Senate running for president, it’s hard to imagine any real legislating will get done.

But not so fast.

There’s an interesting set of dynamics taking shape.  2016 will be the last chance for the Obama Administration to define the president’s legacy.  Congress will continue to take (or not take up) legislation aimed at shaping the November elections.  And the period after the election could be consumed by everything Congress failed to get done before the election.  

Swirling among this are the omnipresent policy issues of the digital advertising industry, which, contrary to popular belief, have the potential to be in play until the very last day of 2016.

Earlier this year, IAB worked with a wide swath of industries to push for Congressional approval of Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) – the so-called “fast track” approval that allows the president to submit trade deals to Congress for a quick, unamendable, up or down vote.  

TPA is essential to the Administration’s passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a Pacific Rim trade agreement of the highest priority for the Obama Administration.   

Though the highly political deal is not likely to see a vote before the election, TPP is essential to opening international markets to the digital advertising industry. It will lower trade barriers and protecting international data transfers and countering a global trend of protectionist policies justified as enhancing privacy and security.

Also critical to digital advertising on the international front are continuing discussions on Safe Harbor 2.0.  As we write, IAB is pushing hard for passage of the Judicial Redress Act, an important precursor to negotiations on a new safe harbor for transferring data from the EU to the U.S. in a privacy compliant manner.  

If Congress fails to act before the end of the year, this issue will return front and center January 1.   

Ever present is the potential for tax reform – particularly international tax reform.  And every time tax reform is on the agenda, the threat that the tax deductibility of advertising will be eliminated or modified exists.  

Though the likelihood of tax reform is slim, no issue has a bigger potential bottom line impact for the digital advertising industry.  If it looks like the Democrats may win the White House, Republicans may conclude that 2016 represents their best chance to get some sort of reform on the books.

Votes on in-the-news items are also a popular election-year tactic.  Falling squarely in this realm is data breach legislation. A comprehensive federal data breach bill has been put forward, and voter frustration in a big election year may be just the ticket to get it over the goal line.  

Similarly, well-intentioned but often poorly constructed policy bills, such as those that involve location privacy, have both Congressional interest and voter appeal.  

Not to be forgotten are the federal agencies.

Early 2016 is likely to see the FTC issue some form of guidance on native advertising disclosures; the FDA is likely to do the same related to advertising pharmaceuticals on social media platforms.  Not to be left out is the FCC, where the Open Internet Order may forever change the way the Internet is governed, with potentially broad ramifications for advertising and mobile Internet in particular.

In September 2014, popular consensus was that the post-election lame duck would be the “lamest lame duck ever.”  When all was said and done, tons of legislation was passed, with nearly one-third of all the bills passed in the 113th Congress approved post-election.  With next year shaping up similarly, 2016 may prove to be anything but lame.