Interpublic market intelligence unit Magna has issued an upgraded 2024 U.S. ad forecast calling for 9.2% growth – to $369 billion – up from the 8.4% growth estimate released in December last year.  

That includes cyclical events like the Olympics and political spending. Underlying growth excluding those cyclical events is estimated at 6.7% (up from the firm's December estimate of 5.9%). 

The updated projection, from Magna’s executive vice president/director of global forecasting, Vincent Létang, follows an upgraded forecast earlier in the week from ad industry economist Brian Wieser.  

Both revised outlooks cited improvements in the U.S. economy.  

Magna's final numbers for 2023 included 9.1% growth in the fourth quarter, which it said was the strongest quarterly growth in non-cyclical ad revenues from media companies in almost two years. That brought full-year ad market growth to 5.7%.  

Magna reports that ad spending in most industry categories will grow this year, led by retail and travel (both 9%) and food/drinks and automotive (both 6%).  

The technology vertical, which cut spending and proved to be a drag on the numbers of many ad groups last year, is expected to remain sluggish with 1% growth this year. Entertainment ad spending is expected to weaken further this year with a 4% decline, per the Magna rundown.  

Ad spending around major cyclical events will drive an estimated $10 billion of incremental ad sales including $9 billion in political advertising. That’s about 13% more than the spending that poured into the 2020 election cycle.  

Magna concludes that digital pure players will capture most of the market growth in 2024, with non-cyclical advertising sales growing by 12% to $261 billion (a 72% market share) while the advertising revenues of traditional media owners will grow by just 3.5% (as the influx of cyclical dollars offsets a 3% decline in non-cyclical ad sales). 

Premium long-form streaming will expand ad sales by 13% this year, driven by the introduction of advertising on Amazon Prime Video, to reach the $10 billion milestone (22% of total national TV). Social media advertising will also grow by 13% while the ad sales of search/retail formats will grow by 12%.