• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, March 1, 2006

Nielsen's new DVR ratings are starting to have a substantial impact, delivering increases for almost all the shows in the top 25 and boosting some programs by 4 percent or more.

For the week of Feb. 6-12--the most recent data available--19 of the top-25 shows among adults 18-49 saw ratings grow when DVR-playback viewing was added to live viewing. Leading the pack in growth rate was NBC's "The Office" at 5 percent, followed by ABC's "Lost," Fox's "24," and NBC's "My Name is Earl"--which all jumped 4 percent.

Also, the Feb. 1 episode of Fox's "American Idol" became the first show to cross the three-tenths barrier since Nielsen began the DVR ratings in December. "Idol's" 12.4 "live" rating increased three-tenths to a 12.7 in "live plus seven day." The "live plus seven day" category adds DVR viewing during the seven days after broadcast to the "live" number.

For Feb. 6-12, the top 4 shows--the two episodes of "Idol" and ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" and "Desperate Housewives"--each saw "live plus seven day" ratings increase by three-tenths. The seventh-ranked show, "Lost," also had a three-tenths gain, going from a 7.5 "live" number to a 7.8.

The issue of how to value ratings increases due to DVR usage is sure to be one of the most interesting facets of the coming upfront. Sellers will press for some type of payment for the added ratings, while buyers will resist, since DVR users are thought to be fanatical commercial skippers. The impact of DVRs on everything from ratings to consumer behavior to costs-per-point also promises to receive significant attention starting today at the American Association of Advertising Agencies' annual media conference in Orlando.

The first several weeks of the DVR ratings saw little change between the "live" ratings and "live plus seven day," although that was likely due to the small amount of DVR homes in the Nielsen sample. But as that number has increased each week--Nielsen says it expects to get to 7 percent, the national average of DVR penetration, by summer--the ratings are starting to show a difference. Still, in a white paper issued to clients this week, Nielsen wrote: "The current number of DVR homes in the sample is still relatively small, although growing fast, and at this point the data should be used with caution and for directional purposes."

The latest DVR ratings reinforce some of the conventional wisdom about the devices--particularly the belief that live, high-visibility events and news broadcasts are DVR-proof, since viewers are eager to watch them as they unfold. The "live" rating for the Grammy broadcast Feb. 8 on CBS (7.1) was unchanged in the DVR-infused rating (perhaps a tad surprising, since the event faced off against highly rated "Idol" and viewers could have watched one and recorded the other). Also, the Feb. 5 Super Bowl saw only a .6 percent increase in "live plus seven day" ratings (this may be one event where commercials are not skipped in playback mode).

NBC's first three nights of the Winter Olympics--on tape-delay from Torino--were also barely impacted by DVR usage. Both the opening ceremonies and the first night of competition coverage saw "live plus seven day" ratings the same as "live." The third night of the Games had a ratings bump from a 7.4 "live" number to 7.5 in "live plus seven day."

The three network evening news broadcasts saw no change between their "live" household ratings and "live plus seven day" for the nights of Feb. 6-10.

Flying in the face of conventional wisdom was CBS's "Survivor: Exile Island." While some believe competitive reality shows are unlikely to attract much DVR viewing--since viewers want to know the results in order to be part of the water cooler discussion the next morning--the Feb. 9 "Survivor" drew a 6.5 "live" rating, which increased to a 6.7 in "live plus seven day." (Some of the DVR viewers did watch the show in playback mode before work the next day: Nielsen ratings for all viewing by 3 a.m. increased to a 6.6).

There is some evidence that NBC's "The Office" has considerable appeal among the technologically savvy, since it appears to be heavily consumed outside its Thursday 9:30 p.m. EST/PST time slot. NBC says "The Office" is one of the most popular downloads among shows offered on Apple's iTunes, while the Feb. 9 episode saw significant viewing via DVR--receiving a 5 percent ratings jump from a 4.4 "live" number to a 4.6 in "live plus seven day." The 5 percent increase is the highest percentage jump for any top-25 show.

Also, a slew of dramas in the top 25 saw "live plus seven day" ratings increase by two-tenths: CBS's "CSI:," Fox's "House," NBC's "ER," and Fox's "24."

Syndicated shows were not heavily impacted by DVRs. Only two of the top-10 shows in Households for Feb. 6-12--"Oprah Winfrey" and "Dr. Phil"--saw an increase in "live plus seven day" ratings over "live" numbers. Neither the top show, "Wheel of Fortune," or comedies "Everybody Loves Raymond" or "Seinfeld," were affected.