• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, January 7, 2008

Online ad spending will grow at nearly four times the rate of the overall advertising economy during 2008, according to new projections released this morning by advertising tracking firm TNS Media Intelligence. The forecast, which is based on macro economic data as it relates to the major media tracked by TNS MI, calls for online ad spending to rise 14.4% this year, marking the only major medium to grow at double-digit rates. TNS MI's forecast for total measured media spending calls for an overall growth rate of just 4.2%.

The actual growth of online media may be more vibrant, as TNS MI only monitors and forecast online display advertising, and does not currently account for faster growing segments of online media such as search.

"The Internet will continue to gain share, principally at the expense of newspapers," Jon Swallen, senior vice president-research, and TNS MI's chief economist stated in the early morning release.

Swallen said TNS MI tracks the share of spending by medium on a rolling two-year basis," in order to control for the biennial fluctuations associated with the Olympics and elections - events that disproportionately benefit television media." Accordingly, he said TNS MI's projections for the 2007-08 cycle indicate television and magazines will maintain their shares, while the Internet will move past radio."

Thanks largely to such cyclical impetus, spot television will be the second fastest growing medium during 2008, growing 9.9% thanks largely to what is expected to be a banner year in political advertising spending.

Spanish language media, outdoor and cable network TV all are expected to outpace the overall growth of the measured media economy next year, while magazines, network TV, radio, business-to-business publications and newspapers all are expected to lag (see table below).

"2008 is shaping up as a year of contrasts," Swallen stated. "Aside from the continued double digit growth rate of Internet display advertising, spending gains will be driven predominately by the powerful combination of Summer Olympics and record-setting levels of political advertising. Offsetting this, a weakened economy will have a dampening effect on the broader, core advertising market."

Not surprisingly, TNS MI's forecast calls for a disproportionate share of that growth to occur in the back half of the year, due to the build up ot the November elections and the Summer Olympic Games.

TNS MI's forecast calls for a meager 3.6% rate of growth during the first half vs. a 4.7% rate during the second half of 2008. Those would also be some of the most moderate rates of growth for a so-called quadrennial year, when the advertising economy generally booms, and are especially dour when compared with relatively weak growth during 2007.

2008 Ad Growth Projections By Medium
Internet	+14.4%
Spot TV	+9.9%
Spanish Language	+7.8%
Outdoor	+5.5%
Cable Network TV	+3.6%
Network Television	+2.7%
Syndication TV	+1.3%
Radio	+0.7%
Business-to-Business Magazines	-0.1%
Newspapers	-0.9%

Source: TNS Media Intelligence. Internet estimates reflect display advertising only. Spanish Language Media includes Hispanic Network TV; Hispanic Spot TV; Hispanic Magazines; and Hispanic Newspapers. Magazine and Newspaper estimates do not include web site advertising. Share figures may not add to 100.0% due to rounding.