• by February 7, 2001

Print Circulation Peaking?

An article written by Bob Moseley in Folio:, released by zdnet, reports that national advertising in all media will rise by 6.3% in 2001, compared to a projected 11.8% in 2000, according to one forecast by Robert Coen of Universal McCann. 91% of publishers say the advertising outlook is an indicator they rely on most often when planning for the coming year, while 70% named their competition. Most expect the flood of advertising seen in 2000 to dry up a bit.

The major issue facing the publishing industry in 2001, according to a Folio: commissioned survey, is the integration of print and digital media. Last year, 55% of publishers named the Internet's growth in gaining advertising marketshare as a top concern, but only 15.2% named that as a top issue for 2001. "Now it feels like the competition is among traditional print. Who's going to offer the most creativity for advertisers on their Web site?" says Diane Blazek, group publisher of Green Profit.

“I still want the Internet on my radar screen [as a concern], big time," says Business Week publisher Bill Kupper, and two-thirds of publishers say they will devote more money to their online businesses in 2001 than they did last year. "We'll be managing those expenditures very wisely, but it's still an area of increased expenditures." Context publisher Ned Fry says, "We've always felt we have to grow our circulation to charge more for ad pages. But I think that, as an industry, we … realize we can't keep raising our circulation. Everybody's taking a deep breath and waiting. I get the sense that more advertisers don't have their budgets approved right now, compared to last year at this time."

61% of the publishers polled believe that their ad pages will grow moderately over the next six months, while one-third feel they will remain flat. 67% polled say that they will change their business models in 2001 to seek out new revenue streams. Interest in converting part of the circulation file to controlled is up: last year, 5.3% of respondents saw this as an option; this year, it's 9.1%.

The full text can be read here.