• Advertising Age, Tuesday, June 16, 2009 9:30 AM

The traditional TV industry -- cable companies, networks and broadcasters -- is where the newspaper industry was about five years ago, according to Henry Blodget. There are murmurs about how longstanding business models will come under pressure as Internet distribution takes over. But so far, the revenue and profits are hanging in there, so the big TV companies don't really care.

But in the next five to 10 years, as Internet-based distribution gains steam, most TV industry incumbents won't able to support their existing cost structures. Already, there are fewer choke points in each market. With an Internet connection anywhere in the world, you will soon be able to get almost any content to your computer -- as well as to your TV.

So far the industry has tried to port its existing model to the new world and maintain its hold on power and money. This is why we're getting so many "ridiculous, consumer-unfriendly" TV solutions. But the Band-Aid solutions will fail because eventually the cable-satellite-airwave monopoly over TV content in local markets will be circumvented by simple, global Internet distribution. You'll be able to watch anything you want, live or taped. You'll just plug a pipe (Internet) into a box (device) and watch. The only question is how long it takes us to get there -- and who gets killed along the way.

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