• by July 6, 2004

TALK MAY BE CHEAP, BUT ADULT 25-54 TV REACH POINTS CERTAINLY ARE NOT -- Here's a statistic that should give any self-respecting media buyer pause: Since the mid-1980s, the cost of reaching adults 25-54 via TV advertising has "quadrupled." At least, that's what media market chronicler Ed Papazian estimates has happened to the average cost per adult 25-54 rating point between the 1983-84 season, when such points fetched between $5,000 and $6,000, and today's range of $18,000 to $20,000. Of course, the mix has changed over the past two decades - driven undoubtedly by rising costs - from 55 percent network prime-time to only about 40 percent today. What's most remarkable about this unabated rate of inflation, says Papazian in a recently published edition of Media Matters, is that it comes during a period of increasing media buying options, including the explosion of syndication and cable TV outlets, which theoretically would seem to have been a sufficient pressure valve for risings cots, but apparently have not been.

Couple the accelerated rate of TV cost inflation with the fact that some people think the medium is no longer as effective as it once was, and we could understand if some big marketers began scratching their heads in much the same manner that Papazian, who happens to consult some of them, apparently is. "If you consider the increased rates of commercial avoidance due to the universal availability of remote control devices, many more channels to sample, heightened ad/promotional clutter and new zapping options like [digital video recorders], the erosion of commercial impact has more than outpaced CPM hikes," observes Papazian, noting that whereas 20 years ago about 5 percent of adults could correctly name a brand in the last TV commercial break they viewed (without being prompted), commercial recall levels today are only about 2 percent.

Worst of all, Papazian doesn't see any immediate solution to the problem, despite a highly publicized push toward greater media buying and delivery accountability by top marketers.

"Like it or not, most advertisers are frozen in time, using outmoded planning and buying concepts that were acceptable 20 or 30 years ago, but don't apply today," chides Papazian, who concludes, "what's all this talk about accountability? For the most part, it's just that: talk!"

STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT -- Regular readers of the Riff undoubtedly know that we're not prone to use the word "legend" all that often. But it seemed the most appropriate descriptor to mark the occasion of Alain Tessier's induction into the Hall of Fame of the Market Research Council. Tessier, who in 1979 co-founded a fledgling media research enterprise known as Magazine Research Inc. (MRI) with certifiable research legends, the late Dr. Timothy Joyce and Philip Wenig, is now chairman of the outfit, which is now known as Mediamark Research Inc. Last week, Tessier and retired Grey Worldwide research veteran Barbara Feigin were inducted into the prestigious hall, which has included such past inductees as Harry E. Heller, Simon Broadbent, Bob Coen, Mervin Field, Jack Honomichl, Gale Metzger, Valentine Appel, George Gallup, Kerbert Krugman, Burns W. Roper and David Ogilvy. While the council doesn't disclose its methodology for selecting hall of famers, it's clear by this list that its margin of error can only be classified as statistically insignificant.

PAULY GOES TO HOLLYWOOD - The Riff is saddened today to have its number reduced by one. An important one. Paul J. Gough, who for two years has been an integral part of the Riff, MediaDailyNews, MEDIA magazine, and the rest of the MediaPost family is going to Hollywood. Actually, he's going to 770 Broadway where he'll be a reporter in the New York bureau of The Hollywood Reporter. Needless to say, we asked him to, "Relax, Don't Do It," but Paul told us he simply wanted "to go to it." We wish him the best, but not too many scoops on the media buying beat.