There's a fine line between
a boom and a bubble, and I'm worried that the social media explosion is starting to show some signs of the latter. The trend has a lot of potentially bubble-like characteristics: for example, a
dizzying number of new companies are launching and raising loads of cash, but without comparable increases in actual revenues, on vague promises of an ad-supported model. Then, to satisfy investor
expectations, they are pressured to introduce half-baked ad platforms before they're ready or even fully thought out.
In this fevered psychological environment, rumors become buzz, which becomes
accepted fact without any basis in reality - and then companies are punished when they fail to fulfill these expectations. Case in point: Twitter's presentation at SXSW. Apparently it was widely
expected that Twitter would unveil a new ad platform. When it didn't, the Internet was rife with anti-buzz - gossip and speculation about why the ad platform is "delayed."
This is all a bit
silly, for a couple reasons. First of all, to the best of my knowledge Twitter never actually promised to unveil an ad platform at SXSW - it just let slip some very general hints of something
important (admittedly, this an annoyingly ambiguous announcement right out of Steve Jobs' playbook). It turned out the new Twitter feature is an information-sharing tool for publishers, @anywhere,
which actually looks pretty neat, letting publishers transform connect hyperlinks to indexes of Twitter content on those topics. It's just not an ad platform.
Second, from a rational -- i.e.,
non-bubble -- perspective, doesn't a company deserve praise, rather than petulant protests (on its own social network, no less!) for not rushing a crappy, poorly thought out, unfinished ad platform
into service just to please an audience at an industry event? This would be the definition of bubble-dumb -- shortsighted and self-defeating -- and frankly, the widespread disappointment expressed by
the audience is a reflection of that very mentality. Sorry, SXSW-ers: yes, the event is important, and your opinion is important, too -- but not so important that a burgeoning new medium should risk
torpedoing its future prospects just to round out your weekend. It's called a business plan; it takes planning.
The final irony is that in the kvetching about the "delay" in
Twitter's ad platform (a prejudicial term, as it suggests there was some kind of published schedule) everyone is overlooking the possibilities of the new @anywhere feature. No, maybe not
earth-shattering like, say, something that makes moneymoneymoney, but still a neat new offering that enhances Twitter's utility and potential reach -- that is, increasing its actual long-term value
for whenever they do get around to monetizing it.