• Barron's, Sunday, June 13, 2010 11:07 PM

Forrester analyst James McQuivey asserts in a blog post today that Google TVhas a chance to succeed at redefining the consumer television experience in a way in which Apple TV, Roku, Vudu, Boxee and various other combatants have not been able to do.

"I have been amazed at how little people understand what's really going on here," he writes. "Google TV is a bigger deal than you think." McQuivey asserts that TV matters "in a way that nothing else does," driving $70 billion a year in advertising and a comparable amount in cable and satellite TV fees, plus another $25 billion in consumer electronics sales. He also points out that viewers watch TV on average 4.5 hours a day.

Google's goal: to get a chunk of the giant pot of TV ad money. McQuivey's approach is more ambitious than rival attempts to inject themselves into the TV ecosystem - but that it also is more likely to succeed. For starters, he notes, timing matters - and broadband penetration is up to two-thirds of U.S. households, with even higher rates in many European and Asian markets. There are home network, meanwhile, in a third of U.S. homes - the "base layer" required to support Google's approach

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