In the weeks before the terrorist attacks, the upfront market ended, which means the scatter market should be starting now. But will it?
"It usually starts now, but it's been pushed back," says
Bill Cela, chairman of Magna Global USA, a media buying division of Interpublic. But he sees a pick up in ad spending within the next two weeks. "People will spend more money, budgets will
materialize," he says.
He says 80 to 85 percent of the inventory was sold during the upfront, a little less than usual, which means there should be more inventory available. But in the aftermath
of the attacks, when so many ads didn't run, that may not be the case, as the ads have to run now as make goods. The inventory is "tightening up now, because we lost two weeks of commercials," Cela
says. "There's less available, but it's not totally tight."
A network spokeswoman, who asked not to be identified, says the tightened inventory will push prices higher. But a spokesman at another
network disagrees, saying, "Scatter prices have been lower this year versus the upfront. You used to be able to sell scatter at a mark up, but this year you see it at the same or just slightly above
upfront prices. It's solid, but you don't see the growth," he says.
These diverging opinions could mean that scatter prices may be higher in the short term, since inventory is tight, but will
drop later when more inventory returns.
"The market is soft now through a combination of factors, the attacks and the economy being generally weak so there's not much activity," says Alan Banks,
vice president North American media director at Saatchi & Saatchi.
Because of the weak economy, "scatter would have been in the best of circumstances marginal even before Sept. 11," says
forecaster Jack Myers. "Marketers are very cautious for the fourth and first quarters. They're in the trenches playing the wait and see game. The best we can hope for is a delayed scatter market."
But Myers sees spending picking up in late October for the Christmas season. He sees a reasonably good Christmas helping local TV better than national, with spot TV advertising special offers,
"anything to get people out of their homes and into the stores."
Cela says everyone is working together now to improve the situation. "We watch clients schedules and make them aware of
programming and keep them close to what's going on. The networks have been working with us to get things taken care of. Everybody's pulling together." He says networks are also looking at the programs
to make sure "there is no offensive content and the proper image is conveyed." Advertisers will be more willing to support such programming and run their own patriotic ads along with it.