• by July 21, 2004

SOME RED, SOME BLUE, AND TWO EXCEPTIONALLY GREEN STATES -- Ordinarily, the Riff doesn't think much about life in the Buckeye State, but after seeing a report this week on presidential campaign media strategies, we can't help empathizing with the citizens of Ohio. Ohioans, it seems, are getting far more than their fair share of campaign plugs as both George Bush's and John Kerry's campaigns heavy-up their media buys in the so-called "battleground states." Based on the report, a University of Wisconsin Advertising Project Analysis of Nielsen Monitor-Plus Data, viewers in Ohio's four largest markets - Toledo, Dayton, Columbus, and Cleveland - were far more likely to see presidential campaign ads than any other markets in the country. The only other major market to come close was Kansas City, which ranked third in presidential campaign media impressions between March 4 and June 20, the period analyzed by the university's ad project. St. Louis also ranked near the top, giving new meaning to Missouri's nickname, the Show-Me State.

The report, which is billed in PR copy worthy of a presidential campaign ad, ("the first-ever comprehensive analysis of presidential campaign political television advertising in all 210 media markets across the nation"), also finds that presidential campaigns utilize acutely targeted geographic strategies. According to the analysis, nearly two-thirds (60 percent) of Americans live in markets where no presidential campaign ads have aired since the primaries ended.

To date, President Bush appears to be winning the media impressions war, outspending John Kerry's campaign in 83 of the 93 TV markets that have been running campaign ads. But if you factor the media might of independent Kerry campaign support groups, such as the Media Fund, MoveOn.org, and the AFL-CIO, the media margin narrows considerably, with Bush impressions outpacing total Democratic advertising in only 31 of those 93 markets.

"The Kerry campaign and its allies are reaching voters more often than the Bush campaign in most of the top media markets in battleground states," noted Professor Ken Goldstein, director of the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project.

Goldstein's analysis also reveals that the campaign media strategies have been remarkably in sync. Not only are the teams concentrating in Ohio and Missouri, but both also tend to target women over men, and older voters over younger voters.

Interestingly, a separate study of voters released this week by AARP magazine, suggests that might be a good strategy, given that the boomer generation appears to be on the fence, and may actually be ripe for a new independent party.

Callings its findings a "wake up call to Republicans and Democrats alike," the AARP study, conducted by RoperASW, reveals that Boomers are increasingly disenchanted with the two-party system. More than half (56 percent) said the country needs a new, strong third political party.

But the demographic strategy of the presidential campaign teams may have as much to do with conventional media buying issues, as it does with political dispositions.

"Young viewers are notoriously difficult to reach through television advertising, and commercial advertisers often pay a significant premium to reach that demographic group," notes Jeff King, managing director of Nielsen Monitor-Plus.

Of course, the study didn't actually analyze media where young Turks might be, and whether the campaigns have in fact been targeting young voters more discretely, such as the Internet.

The following figures illustrate each side's buys by gender and age breaks for the 93 markets with presidential ad activity.

Most Targeted Presidential Campaign Media Markets

-----------Bush-----------	---- Kerry*-----
Burlington-Plattsburg, VT	Toledo, OH
Detroit, MI	Dayton, OH
Sioux City, IA	St. Louis, MO
Kansas City, MO	Columbus, OH
Green Bay-Appleton, WI	Kansas City, MO
Erie, PA	Portland, OR
Wilkes Barre-Scranton, PA	Cleveland, OH
Presque Isle, ME	Las Vegas, NV
Dayton, OH	Erie, PA
Lansing, MI	Reno, NV

Source: Nielsen Monitor-Plus and The University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. *Kerry campaign and Democratic groups combined.