• by March 12, 2004

DO AS WE SCHEDULE, NOT AS WE ZAP - At last the Riff finally understands what all the angst over digital video recorders is really about. And it isn't coming from some new Nielsen data, or even the deluge of consumer research studies indicating the impact DVRs are having on consumer ad-watching behavior. What's got national advertisers running scared is their own commercial-watching behavior. Or perhaps, it's the lack of it. Asked if they use their DVRs to skip TV commercials, 56 percent of national marketers who on a DVR said they skip TV advertising.

The finding, which comes from a survey of top TV advertisers, got relatively little play when it was released Wednesday during the Association of National Advertisers Television Advertising Forum in New York, but the stat is startling. It's actually higher than the amount of commercial skipping found in consumer DVR studies. A recent one conducted by TiVo and Starcom, for example, found that TiVo subscribers zap an average of 54 percent of TV spots. While that is likely a statistical parity, we would have thought national advertisers would be more inclined to look at TV advertising than consumers are, even if only to check out the competition or take pride in their own handiwork.

The study also revealed that DVR penetration is much more pronounced among national marketing executives than it is in the general population. While Nielsen currently estimates DVRs are in 3.5 to 4.0 percent of U.S. TV homes, 23 percent of the ad execs said they own one. And they're apparently using them. Ninety-one percent said they use them to time-shift TV programming and 63 percent use them to pause live programming, two behaviors that would lead Nielsen to reject them from its live TV viewing estimates, when it begins measuring DVR homes next summer. It's a good thing that advertising executives are excluded from participating in Nielsen's TV ratings samples.

Given their own DVR experiences, it should come as no surprise that marketers consider it a major threat. Asked to characterize the relative threat to TV advertising on a scale of 1 (not a threat) to 5 (major threat), DVRs averaged a 3.7, ranking fifth behind such perennial TV advertising threats as declining ratings (4.2), clutter (4.1), lack of quality programs (4.1) and media fragmentation (3.8).

Threats To Television Advertising

(1 = not a threat, 5 = major threat)

Declining Ratings            4.2 
Clutter                      4.1 
Lack
Of Quality Programs     4.1 
Media Fragmentation          3.8 
Personal Video Recorders     3.7 
Video On Demand              3.6 
Program Taste/Indecency      3.5 
Internet
3.2 
Government Interference      3.0    
Video Games                  2.8 
Branded Entertainment        2.7 

Source: Association of National Advertisers.

THE JON VS. THE DON - Thank goodness Jon Mandel isn't looking for a job. He'd make a lousy apprentice. Make that a lousy apprentice to Donald Trump. "It's essentially a negative show," said Mandel, referring to Trump's red-hot "Apprentice" series to a roomful of national advertisers. It could be that Mandel, who cited the show as a prime example of the "constant negativity" pervading prime-time network shows during the ANA's TV Ad Forum, is simply jealous that the series has featured Deutsch media chief Peter Gardiner instead of MediaCom's.

Whatever Mandel's motivations actually were, they led MindShare research czar David Marans to skewer him. Marans, who moderated a lead-out panel on TV research, opened his session by taking a mock phone call from "Donald who?," whom he went on to answer with the rhetorical question: "You're making a takeover of what? MediaCom?" Turning to the audience, Marans said, "There's a call for you Jon, you're fired." So maybe Mandel is looking for a job after all.

One thing Marans may be looking for, is a good electronic programming guide. Describing the difficulty he had trying to navigate a particularly complicated TV set-up at a colleagues home, Marans said, "I tried to watch the 'Twilight Zone' and I taped the Spice channel." He quickly followed the quip with a personal qualifier about the adult entertainment channel: "It's not that popular in my home."

ARE THE EFFIES TRULY ABOUT MARKETING EFFECTIVENESS, OR JUST ADVERTISING AFFECTEDNESS? - The Riff has always the EFFIE Awards in a higher regard than most ad industry awards. And it's not just because they come under the auspices of the American Marketing Association, but also because they are judged on the merit of marketing effectiveness - ie. actual results - as opposed to anything as capricious as "creativity." What we don't understand, is why you always see plenty of "creatives" so heavily represented on the EFFIE's judging committees and why you never see a media person on the panel, at least not for "round one" of the judging process. We were naturally disappointed to see this pattern repeat itself with the EFFIE's new Multinational Awards. It's not that we have a problem with people like BBDO's Allan Rosenshine (a former copywriter) and McCann-Erickson's Nina DiSesa (chief creative officer) being on the committee. They are clearly insightful judges of great advertising and marketing. But once again, the EFFIE team has ignored the importance of media's role in marketing effectiveness.

VOTE NOW ON WHETHER ONLINE SHOULD JOIN THE MEDIA (MAGAZINE) MIX - The Riff agrees with Universal McCann's David Cohen. There should be one MEDIA Magazine. And it's not just because the Riff's colleagues are feeling stretched simultaneously putting out two high quality media books - one about "traditional" media and one about "online" media. It's because we think online media is actually part of the mix. Either that, or we think the folks at MediaPost should rename the online edition ONLINE MEDIA MAGAZINE. Otherwise, we get confused. But we'd like to know what you think. If you want to see what Cohen has to say, check out his column and feel free to post a reply on MediaPost's Spin Board.