• by November 5, 2003

OKAY, IT'S MOSTLY THE PROGRAMMING, STUPID - The Riff is confused again. We thought the mystery of the missing 18- to 24-year-old men had been solved and that they simply are watching less TV and doing other stuff. Heck, Nielsen said so. And so did TV ratings guru Steve Sternberg. We've even seen evidence coming from other sectors, including a comScore report proving that young men are coming online in throngs. Plus they're using a slew of other non- traditional media, especially video games. So, how come a panel of top network TV programming executives once again were pointing their fingers at Nielsen during an IRTS breakfast Tuesday morning? And how come a Nielsen spokeswoman seemed to be back peddling in her quote in today's New York Times Ad Column. "We're not sure what's causing it," Karen Gyimesi told Times ad columnist Stuart Elliott. "We've been working with our network clients very closely on this for several months, analyzing our sample as much as we can in all different directions." That's certainly a less confident tone than Nielsen put forth in its communiqueé to clients last week, following an extensive analysis that the ratings-keeper said proved the change in viewing behavior was genuine and not the result of Nielsen's research methods. Even Magna Global USA audience analyst Sternberg seemed to be waffling on the issue, telling the Times that even if there is something wrong with Nielsen's research, "it's not the major factor." Nonetheless, Sternberg maintains the answer to the debate is much simpler: network primetime TV simply does not appeal to young men. And if the Riff is any example, network primetime doesn't appeal all that much to some not-so-young men either. So maybe it's a good thing that CBS canceled its controversial Reagan biopic, after all.

SPEAKING OF SPIN CONTROL - The Riff once again is saddened to report the loss of another industry giant. And the really sad part is that few on Madison Avenue even knew who he was or realize how much he transformed the world of marketing. Herbert Muschel, who created the PR Newswire, died Saturday. He was 85. The PR Newswire, for unacquainted advertising types, was the pioneer of electronic distribution of press releases, an industry that has spawned many competitors and new formats like satellite distributed video news releases. Together, these PR outlets disseminate enough media impressions to compete with the paid media industry's (a.k.a. advertising) share of consumer media impressions. Of course, when Mr. Muschel launched PR Newswire back in 1954, few might have envisioned how it would transform the world of marketing communications. Back then, the company was using primitive, by today's standards, teletype machines that fed corporate press releases to news rooms much the way Wall Street brokerages got their market ticker data. Over the years, electronic distribution of news has improved and it exploded with the emergence of the Internet, which enabled anyone with a modem (even dial-ups) to access corporate news, anywhere, anytime. But people on the advertising side of the business may be more familiar with another of Muschel's business ventures. In the late 1940s he developed a magazine called TeleVision Guide, which ultimately was sold to Walter Annenberg's Triangle Publications, which eventually became a magazine known as TV Guide. And the rest, as they say, is history.

TRAFFIC REPORT: FEET, NOT AD SCHEDULES (YET) -- If industry trade shows are any indication, the media marketplace appears to be turning the corner. Attendance at top shows for the magazine industry and the online advertising marketplace both exceeded expectations and their sponsors say the foot traffic is a harbinger of a market upturn to come. Ad:Tech New York, which concludes today, has emerged as the closest thing to a NATPE-like convention that the industry has seen since NATPE's heyday in the 1980s. Five thousand marketers, agencies, publishers and technology providers attended this year's conference, making it difficult to navigate both conference sessions and the exhibit hall at New York's Hilton Hotel. The same thing could be said a week earlier at the same exact venue, where the Folio Show drew 2,000 attendees - mostly publishing industry exes, but a decent contingent of folks from Madison Avenue. "They had to knock out a wall because there were so many people," boasted John French, senior vice president of Primedia Business, which just happens to own the Folio Show. Aside from the architectural implications for New York's Hilton, it was difficult to see whether the booming magazine industry event was positively impacting Primedia's own bottom line. The company's recent third quarter earnings release indicated mediocre ad sales for its consumer division and massive erosion among its business-to-business pubs.

SPEAKING OF TRAFFIC - We're pleased with the turnout we've gotten on a new advisory panel we've been recruiting. The idea is to have some regular interactive dialog - once a month - with our readers to gauge industry issues and conduct brief surveys to find out what's on your minds. We've been conducting these surveys since last summer and we've found out some pretty interesting stuff: that 18-49 is not the ruling demo (hint: 25-54 is); that magazines are a mess, that you guys are far less optimistic about 2004 ad spending scenarios than the forecast gurus are. We've got a pretty nifty one being conducted this month - and it will likely end up as the cover story on the December issue of MEDIA magazine. We think it will shock and surprise people in the ad biz and may make them think a little differently about how they target consumers with media. Needless to say, we're not spilling the beans in a Riff column, but if you want to find out what all this intrigue is about, click here and sign up for the panel. You'll get to participate in this mysterious survey and you'll also get an advance copy of the top-line results before they are published. By the way, you'll get that same first-look each month on all of our research, including preliminary findings of our monthly Ad Demand Index tracking poll.