• by Dana Blankenhorn , March 26, 2003

With TV advertising cut back due to war coverage, it would follow that print media would see an increase. However, that's not happening. Despite a shortage of evidence for a major ad decline, the newspaper industry is bracing for some big losses.

"For the most part papers are still seeing declines, although smaller than last year," said Jim Conaghan, vice president-business analysis and research for the Newspaper Association of America (NAA).

There have been no mass cancellations of department store ads, the bulwark of the newspaper industry. A few categories of newspaper advertising have been hit, Conaghan admitted, such as travel and tourism advertising. Help wanted advertising has yet to pick up, either.

"There is some consensus among economists we won't get an improvement until after this conflict is resolved. That suggests we won't see improvement in help wanted until after the conflict is resolved, and something happens in the second half of the year," he said.

Magazines are protected from a lot of the war's impact due to long lead times. Decisions on monthly ads made today would not be reflected in print until July, when the war may be just a memory. Ellen Oppenheim, executive vice president and chief marketing officer for the Magazine Publishers' Association, hasn't heard of any war impact to date on magazine ad sales. "However what will happen in the future is totally dependent on the severity and length of the war and the resulting economic impact."

The impact could vary widely depending on a magazine's subject matter and its deadlines. Frommer Budget Travel, for instance, closed its May ad sales a month ago, and publisher Nancy Telliho said those were fairly strong. But June sales, which close April 1, are "soft," she said.

That might be due to the magazine's subject matter. "Our stories are action-oriented," she said. "We always have a price point, an 800 number, and Web site, with date availability," on editorial matter.