• by September 23, 2011

Trying to predict media changes over the next 10 years strikes me as a fool's errand, given how much media has changed in the last 10 years.

Nevertheless, I'm willing to give it a whirl.

I see two paths: One I hate, the other I love. They're not mutually exclusive, and I know there are hundreds of potential routes sitting in between them, but here goes.

The first path is a media world that is automated and commoditized. It's driven by amazing technologies that, despite their utility and sophistication, will fail to make the distinction between "audience" and "targeting". The technologies will be born of the simple need to drive down costs by eliminating labor and maximizing efficiency. On paper, both agencies and clients win, but only if we mutually surrender to the prioritization of "delivery" over "understanding."

The second path increasingly reintegrates creative and media. It acknowledges that context and content can create resonance that may actually add value to a user's day, which in turn adds value to the brands and products we aim to support. This represents a deeply integrated media world that demands we understand not only the role of specific channels, but also the interplay among them.

In this framework, we'll stop thinking about "traditional" versus "digital." Instead, we'll consider a continuum of the interaction each channel can provide within the context of a given audience's day of media consumption. Ads will have value as content in their own right. Any ad that doesn't provide some tangible benefit to its audience would be rightly viewed as the output of cynical bottom feeders. So, the only question in my mind is will we actively shape the future, or are we going to let it shape us?

Bryan Noguchi is Vice President, Executive Media Director at T3