Commentary

Is 'American Idol' Really In Decline? I Think Not -- But 'X Factor' Is Another Matter

The media has been having a field day with the news that ratings for the opening weeks of Fox’s “American Idol” are down from last year. Heaven knows it hasn’t been a slow entertainment news period, especially where talent shows on Fox are concerned, so I have to wonder what all the fuss is about. We’re talking about a program that is in its eleventh season -- one that made its debut approximately 10 ½ years ago (on June 11, 2002, to be exact). How can its ratings not be down? Isn’t it bigger news that, even with its ratings in decline, “Idol” can still outperform the competition on the other four broadcast networks combined?

Additional context is called for. The opening weeks of “American Idol,” otherwise known as the audition period, began to suffer ratings erosion several seasons ago when Simon Cowell’s withering barbs began to wear thin. Ratings for the opening weeks of season 10 would likely have been down as much as they have been this season were viewers not curious to see how “Idol” was going to fare with Cowell no longer on the show and Steven Tyler and Jennifer Lopez trying to bring a renewed sense of fun to the franchise. With Tyler and Lopez settled in for a second season, and Randy Jackson and Ryan Seacrest still in place, this season of “Idol” is the first in many years to not be somehow dramatically different from the year before, given the musical chairs at the judges table that began in 2008 when Kara DioGuardi joined the group and continued in 2009 when Paula Abdul left the show and Ellen DeGeneres tried her hand at it.

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The real ratings test will come when “Idol” finally gets down to the best part of the season: the narrowing of the Top 24 to the Top 12, followed by the emergence of the Top 10 and the always entertaining and frequently surprising competition that follows. If this show has a problem, it’s that the Top 10 generally includes several uniquely talented individuals who deserve to win but don’t. (Think of Adam Lambert and James Durbin, among many others.) I think that would change with a more tightly controlled voting process, like voting by phone only with a one-vote-per-number system. Then the most talented performers might actually win, rather than those favored by a tireless subset of digitally driven kids.

If the power of “Idol” has indeed been diminished, it’s likely because of the addition to Fox’s schedule of an American version of Cowell’s formidable Brit hit “The X Factor,” which seemed to work better there than here. It only makes sense that the breathless anticipation that once built for millions of viewers between the annual “Idol” season finale in May and the beginning of a new season eight months later would be diminished by the insertion of a four-month singing competition in that window.

On the subject of “X Factor,” the removal from the show this week of unaccountably ill-suited host Steve Jones is but the first of many big changes Cowell and his team will have to make if it is ever to become the giant hit they want it to be – and if it is to become something that complements rather than compromises “Idol.” They have also dismissed Nicole Scherzinger, who won’t be missed, and Paula Abdul, who will be -- though not to the extent we might miss her if the show had been better. (Who should replace Jones? Might I suggest British talk show host Graham Norton, who has done an extraordinary job hosting a number of BBC talent competition programs? Who should replace Scherzinger and/or Abdul? How about original “X Factor” judge Cheryl Cole?)

So what more should Simon do? It would be nice if he toned down the production overall. The noise! The light shows! The hyper video introductions! The overdone everything! It won’t hurt to sacrifice much spectacle for more substance. Last season every contestant was showcased in a manner befitting a superstar. Let them at least become half-stars first!

If it it’s at all possible, the number of judges should be reduced to three. A three-judge format always works better than a foursome; look no further than “Idol’s” recent uneven history for proof. That will necessitate eliminating a talent category, and the choice there is easy. The show didn’t benefit from including groups in the competition, did it? Name one of them.

Most of all, “X Factor” needs to place far less emphasis on the judges, no matter who they are or how many of them sit at the table. Ideally, the judges would not double as mentors, an arrangement that seems to gum up their ability to make honest assessments of certain performers.

Let others do the coaching. Remember, talent shows should be all about the competitors. America’s got talent, and Americans want to see it -- that’s why “Idol” has done so well for so long.

1 comment about "Is 'American Idol' Really In Decline? I Think Not -- But 'X Factor' Is Another Matter".
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  1. Diane K De from , February 3, 2012 at 1:42 p.m.

    I think the problem American Idol has to deal with isn't ratings decline, but how it can deliver on its premise which is allegedly to discover the next "pop idol", as it was originally called in the UK.

    The median age of people watching the show has gotten older and older and the people--and genres they represent--that end up in the final rounds is reflecting that. I don't think we ended up with two country singers last year because it was teenagers stuffing the ballots. I think there were quite a few grandmoms voting too for those cute kids singing those country songs.

    The ratings have dropped the most for people under 18 and the least for people 50 or older.

    I know it's been a rare American Idol winner who can actually sell records that I myself would buy, but my watching it requires me to believe it's possible the show can find that person.

    (Note: I realize that Scotty from last year did sell well in the country charts. But, that kind of proves my point.)

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